tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-74913970597427508222024-03-13T23:03:12.892+01:00Jan Thurins tankarWhat began as Natural Science evolved into Political Science particularly International RelationsJan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.comBlogger1445125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-62036262502162729022012-06-25T10:20:00.001+01:002012-06-25T10:20:49.214+01:00The Movie Avatar--An Interpretation<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The number
of matches I have found in various reading frames in the Avatar movie to my life
suggests that is has to do with my life and that it is quite aggressive and mildly
informative. There is less giving than taking. It confirms several important issues
discussing my Ödessymfoni—A New Type of Concentration Camp and the Reinvention
of the Guillotine that was written before I saw the movie. Had I seen the movie
prior to writing my life story someone would proably have used it to block such
a tale. If I do not find all subtle symbolic references in Avatar to my life, such
issues could be used to formulate so called “snedskjutningar”, usually erroneous
stories made up from things that actually have happened and thus making them harder
to fight, that I am told to avoid due to bad conscience.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">After having
concluded this, it could be of interest to consider the point that it would be a
little megalomaniac to think a $237m movie was made to ‘shoot’ myself, although
it made the producers a small fortune since it brought in $2,750m at the box office.
In such a case it would be necessary to introduce another motive a friendship to
a global socialistic authoritarian network or similar. Such a motive could be deduced
from the use of this kind of films to arouse a certain brand of adventure prone
indivuals to become political assassins as detailed above. To give people you wiped
out yourself in some fashion a seemingly meaningful suicide mission.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">To make a movie
where nearly all comments are interpretable as code and perhaps half of the scenes
similarly interpretable demands that you start out with a blue print for this
code and build plot dialoge and filming totally on this scheme with lots of face
similarities. Totally destroying a life from 14 to 15 years and following this up
with continuous destruction of course might be a way to create an endearing story
that turns out to be an all time box office success. That such life fates might
be more common these days than people can imagine would be one possible conclusion
due to abuse of power with the technology. It would also explain the success Mel
Gibson had with his movie The Passion of the Christ that cost only $30m to make
and which brought in $650m at the box office.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">In terms of
identification the movie plot offers a choice between pest and cholera. On the one
hand a Nazi style personality who uses gas and incineraries to wipe out a culture
on the other cave men type neurotoxin wielding savages busy in a new type of sex
cult. Jakesully the Toruk Mak Tau however cries out “they are not going to take
everthing they want from us” when he rallies the clans for a counter attack. Having
had the Na’vi in my ‘ears’ for 12.5 years now, this is however what they do for a living.
They steal immaterial property right out of your brain and from your computer and
this might be a global menance by now, calculating from the box office numbers.
The irony is that people might not realize that Jakesully in actuality is shooting
himself in the foot with his accusation. I can say this after having seen the movie
16 times but a person that sees it only once hears what Jakesully says when he
unifies the clans and does not perhaps understand what the Na’vi in actuality is
out “hunting”.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-3233007941872635032012-06-17T14:59:00.000+01:002012-06-17T15:01:14.724+01:00Ödessymfonin<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Ödessymfonin—A
New Type of Concentration Camp and the Reinvention of the Guillotine, a
description of my life so far and a cavalcade of movies, ‘All Movies
Considered’, below, seemingly demonstrating the world that I have been forced
to live in makes it possible to conclude what the current world situation seem
to be right now. It is not multipolarity but rather the choice between two
principles: bottom up or top down. You can use the independence declaration of
the US and the psychology of man to create a political system of function or
you can take a tempting idea and try to work the down by controlling people
with it like Hitler, Stalin, and Mao tried. Currently individuality in the
whole of society is threatened by a soldier life in a family, a system possibly
resulting in system wars, like those in Syria right now. The movie cavalcade
describes how the recruitment of this new system warrior is taking place. Will
it be possible to avoid outright system wars and instead solve the situation
diplomatically by discussions rather than a new type of warfare?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">If you look
at the prognosis for this battle of choices, it is interesting to note that the
control freaks actually quite substantially inhibit their social science and
psychology research. The US should definitely pull ahead faster and should be
farther on the right path right now.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I have one
problem with the Swedish election system, because, I don’t think the Swedish
voter can make this choice with his ballot. He is simply not allowed to discuss
the matter. Sweden Inc is in the process of joining Germany although Germany
has not openly made this choice either.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">All these
movies have given significant revenue. Suffering from technology abuse is interesting
to people. In all variants.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Preschool<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Contact with child psychologist in
north Kortedala. Result: will be able to complete university studies. Tests on
aggression by war games in sand box—no idea who paid for this<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Early
school<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Contact with hypnotist for
supposed problem with sleep—no idea who paid for this but it would come in
useful to make sleepless nights and such complaints in the future “natural”.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1973 (1965)<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>English class Gymnasium--IPCRESS File,
fascism, Providence, how to kill a mockingbird—assassination by hand of hero
after psychological torture of the same. What happens to me if I’m interested
in the AngloAmerican?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1984-93<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Wistar—they try to make me look
like a computer literate person although I am not. Building in the special report
I did in the Gymnasium on computer programming?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1997<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Devil’s Advocate—The
Wistar does something else, clear assignment of me to future Neo, Keanu Reeves.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1997<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Conspiracy Theory—production
of political assassins by human experimentation. Passionate love—not
passion-free relations! Introduction of relations between the buried alive and
the living? Koprowski, or Dr Jonas, shoots Mel Gibson to a buried alive state.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
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<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1998<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Sexual Harassment and other
effects begin on my person in Bergsjön with technology. My technology awakening—born
again—awakenings create a spiritual interest in people in general probably.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1999<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Matrix—DeHio floatglass,
liquid metal/Wistar Philadelphia railroad bridge, the red pill looking like the
vitamin pills I bought in Phila. Eczema--human experimentation. Chalmers
Nazism? Human subjects committee at the Wistar to contaminate me with
non-seriousness in such matters?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1999<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Girl Interrupted—Red grave<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$48m ($24m)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1999<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Eyes Wide Shut—red/black
religious sex cult<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$162m
($65m)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">1999<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Deep Blue Sea<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>--human
experimentation<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$165m ($60m)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2000<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Kristall Nacht abduction and
imprisonment at Lillhagsparken during my stay in Bergsjön. The erroneous use of
the word Zion in the Matrix Trilogy?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2000<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>What Women Want—The Wistar
does something else<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>$374m ($70m)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2000<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Patriot—revenge after
humiliation of death of two children, system revolutions, concentration camps<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2002<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Mel Gibson, Morgan Freeman
does their Independence Declaration YouTube video. Gibson takes a long break
from acting, divorces, has a fling loses a child but directs movies in original
lost languages, non-English.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2002<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Signs—revenge on alien after
death of child?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2002<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Placement at Gunnar Hansson’s
laboratory (Nebudcanezzar or Morpheus’ German ship) for destruction of science
competence and to introduce Trinity (Julia). Morpheus is the name of the god of
dreams—the creation of programmed mental environments.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2003<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Matrix Reloaded—The
trio: “we are in this for our affinity to obedience”, Chinese-catholic
clothing, Nazi clothing, strong interest in the sexual. Obey your ‘ears’
blindly is what I hear all the time in my ‘ears’ over 12.5 years, but never do.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2003<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Matrix Revolutions—passionate
love loses by sacrifice, system revolution, meaningless fighting<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2004<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>The Passion of the Christ—agape
means death. System gods killed by the establishment—an army of Mr Smiths?
Suffering by abuse of power?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2004<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>National Treasure<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$378m
($100m)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Recruitment
protocol for a new type of warrior. Trying to make Americans believe this is a
new type of law enforcement operator, ie misinformation?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2004/5<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Second imprisonment at
Lillhagsparken representing the end of the Bergsjön era<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2005<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>My father Erik I Thurin
dies. Starts my own economy leaves welfare. However, marginalization--all
people I know are successively estranged systematically because I begin here on
an economy that will take me into retirement not making economic control
possible.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2006<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Apocalypto—hero almost
sacrificed returns to rebuild community that was raided<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2007<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>National Treasure 2<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>$457m
($130m)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2008<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>My mother starts to try to
train me with verbal karate. I interpret this as an attempt to make it
impossible for me to live on Hönö that culminated during Christmas 2011.
Wilkinson? Turns out to be taming her Ikran from the mountain initiation rite?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2009<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Avatar<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>$2,750m
($237m)<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">A
description of the Na’vi ‘fulsosse’ clans in Sweden and their system rules and
ways of life. Data mining by the establishment for unobtainium, data that does
not exist. The movie offers a choice between pest and cholera in terms of moral
of acting system.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;">
<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">2010<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span>Edge of Darkness—temptation
for revenge by assassination after humiliation by death of child. Political
correction of illicit functionaries in society. The bullets used might very
well be regarded as shootings rather. Magic Bullets? Darius Jedburgh? Persian
assassin? Jedi Borg? That looks like Hans Johansson who was with me at DeHio’s
Walpurgis Nacht cocktail party? Loop back to Neo’s initiation? The initiation
of a Social Democrat Neo—a red bull.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-58056006193241456172012-03-21T09:17:00.002+01:002012-03-21T09:17:52.307+01:00Where is Sweden Heading?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I have tried to follow the development in Europe in relation to the plans of Sweden for some time. Lately there was a redevelopment of the federal European idea with the Europact that Angela Merkel got together with Nicholas Sarkozy and that Great Britain turned down.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The conclusion so far from available data in the media is that the Swedish elite is fairly Germany directed, the bulk of Swedish trade goes to Germany which also involves the business community, and EU directed whereas the population at large in Sweden is not. The people of Sweden seems to be more Swedish than European. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">On the other hand, English is the first foreign language taught in Swedish schools and according to an article in Svenska Dagbladet today Great Britain and the United states takes most Swedish students of all countries in the world, 5068 and 5035, respectively. Europe as a whole takes 16,337 students, North America takes 5542. Only 948 go to Germany which could be compared with Australia with 1554. China and Japan receives 484 and 655, respectively. Insignificant amounts go to South American and Africa.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Language orientation wise Sweden is heading to AngloAmerica but in sheer numbers the Swedes visit the different European countries which should comfort the Swedish elite even if. It is a pity that the major European countries Germany and France are resistant about the English language. If not we could have formed a true Western civilization with this language. One question is if Europe is going to shift to German as a second language? My guess is that an invisible hand might actually accomplish this via the elite as well as a unification and political integration of Europe. However, this will have to happen against the intentions of the so called people.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-76134152513121925182012-03-07T14:22:00.001+01:002012-03-07T14:25:37.777+01:00Monetary Expansion/”Liquidity Injection”<span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-size: medium;"><span style="color: #4f81bd;"><span style="font-family: Cambria;">Why is monetary expansion performed at all when it is neutral in the medium run for unemployment and output but generates inflation in the medium run?<o:p></o:p></span></span></span></span><br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Are the short run effects so important for expectations that it is worth it? Olivier Blanchard says among other things: “Today, most economists recognize that there is substantial uncertainty about the effects of policy. They also accept the implication that this uncertainty should lead to less active policy.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Central Bank should be independent since politicians would want short sighted increases in output and decreases in unemployment and don’t care so much about the inflation. The Central Banker should be conservative, ie, he or she should care more about inflation than unemployment. The ECB is only concerned with inflation and foreign exchange though in contrast to the Fed.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">One reason for the use of monetary policy is to even out fluctuations. However, it seems to be an unfortunate battle between politicians that wants to run the printing press and the conservative independent Central Bank when in reality it should be the business sector that creates job and wealth. Politicians should instead of “creating jobs” secure positive vibrations, lead, as Romney puts it. There is too much talk from government in Sweden to create jobs. However, according to the Eurobarometer, the economy and jobs is what concerns people the most.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">Reinfeldt says that he listens, ie, he is the psychologist of the people, rather than the leader of the business community that he should be if he wants to “create jobs”. Obama seems to have the same problem with alienating himself with the business community. </span>Reinfeldt had called ’Svenskt Näringsliv’ a “särintresse” or special interest. <span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The fürer concept is of course a little peculiar in Europe and carries a stigma. The other problem is that it is considered non-solidary with a current account surplus like that of Sweden, a small export oriented country.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">When it comes to fiscal tools, decrease of government spending and tax reform rather than tax increase seems to be valuable as in Ireland in the 1980s where Ireland worked itself out of a budget deficit of 13%. This hike also benefitted from an increase in expectations for the future, the leadership variable again. Mario Draghi has now made a move that will aid private banks which could qualify as leadership for the business community and which seems to have created positive expectations for the future—at least temporarily.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The problem of not having a leader of the business community in the West right now is in all probability serious if you don’t trust the Hayekian individuality concept. At least, there does not seem to be a known leader—if the Central Banker has not taken over the helm. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-87603486756906881422012-02-21T21:46:00.000+01:002012-02-21T21:46:21.824+01:00The Arab Spring--Revisited<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I have not dealt with the Middle East problems for a while. Two years ago when I read The New York Times they wrote about this all the time but the world of The Financial Times is different. But I started to think a little about it again after Gideon Rachman’s column today.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I was never for bombing Iran to shut down their nuclear effort because I could never find enough arguments to support such a tremendous risk entering such a hornet’s nest. But as Binyamin Netanyahu said, would you want a neighbor that shouts “Death to America” and “Death to Israel” constantly with nuclear weapons? As a Swede it is difficult to select either the perspective of Israel or the US since Netanyahu and Obama did not really get along on the details. Here in Sweden you run into less problems if you support the US position rather than Israel’s. However, I don’t think Israel has occupied the West Bank. They were attacked and managed to turn this into a victory and was therefore entitled to this territory for protecting themselves. It is not possible to protect Israel without this territory. I find this very easy to defend morally.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The problem with Iran is that they might just be waiting for their bomb to start something in the area. The fact that Syria’s Alawites are taking a beating and that this is enticing the Sunni Saudi Arabia to venture into this direction might also be a trigger. But Iran has 80m inhabitants and striking them out without serious problems in the area seems like a fairy tale. In this sense the world has evolved from the situation 2003 when the 20m inhabitant Iraq was taken down because of its hopeless dictator leader that fought Iran for 8 years and then attacked Kuwait. It seems highly likely that a new debacle would possibly destroy what has been achieved in Iraq.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Egypt turned out as I suspected after the Coup against Mubarak that Amir Taheri discussed in The Times at the time. He loosened the reins on some people and then told them to go back to work when they were finished it seemed. The Army in Egypt that runs 10% of the people and everything that moves is in complete control. What I learned from watching this phenomenon was that all these states down there basically work in such a fashion. What also seems to have happened is that they shut out Western journalists with their aggressions which the two Swedes in Ethiopia demonstrate. The Arab League should probably be in charge as much as possible in the area for things to work out optimally in some new form of Islamic political organization. With the large power relations in the area, it seems more and more likely that a new Cold War situation is building up, more than before even.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Libyan “experiment”, I’m not sure I like calling it such, but in a way it is because there were no ground troops like in Iraq. Initially I thought more people might die if Gadhafi would go, and this might indeed have been the case, 25,000 died, but with the support of the Arab League the Libyan rebels got their war of liberation. We don’t know yet if they country will grow together but let’s hope so. Using Libya as a yard stick, as well as the experience with Iraq, making a move on Iran would be an absolutely last choice in my view.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-83522774039753943222012-02-21T16:46:00.000+01:002012-02-21T16:46:14.842+01:00A Lot Happened During the 1970s<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Inequality went up in both the US and Europe. This was followed by a rise in unemployment in Europe from the 1980s. Russia crashed 10 years later. In the US unemployment went up a little initially but then rather was on a falling trend. In Japan the unemployment went up after the 1990 stock crash and the following slump. Pre-crisis the inequality in the US was at least followed by a lowering of the unemployment.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">In psychology we saw the demise of the behaviorism paradigm and in macroeconomics Lucas and Sargent introduced rational expectations. The original Phillips curve where inflation is inversely proportional to unemployment did not work anymore and had to be changed to the new version that correlated change of inflation with unemployment. Nixon and Kissinger ended the Vietnam War. Did the psychology of man change during the 1970s?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The question is if the financial crisis together with the rise of China and state capitalism has changed human psychology again? In the US they start talking about merging with European welfare lore at the same time as this paradigm seems to become unaffordable. Europe seems unable to put people back into something constructive with its high unemployment whereas the US has turned the tide and if unemployment data from 1948 is consulted it is evident that all surges in unemployment are short lived so far.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">It is therefore reassuring to see that Mitt Romney, to optimal republican presidential candidate is gaining some momentum again after being challenged by the more social conservative Rick Santorum. It seems like the positive data from the economy that surfaced not long ago led to the surge of Santorum which weakened Romney. Possibly a repeat of the earlier surges performed by almost all other candidates. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Romney’s motto is “Believe in America” and this is what seems to be the best bet for the West right now when a reignition under the same regime is necessary rather than going left ward as also seems to be a trend in Sweden and France, although Sarkozy is also regaining momentum recently.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">So, I don’t think we are in for a second change in psychology. We just have to believe in the most dynamic survivor from the paradigm of the 1970s.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-91483122243851252052012-02-12T11:22:00.002+01:002012-02-12T11:55:18.057+01:00Neuro Research in Sweden?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">PJ Anders Linder writes an interesting editorial today in Svenska Dagbladet concerning the dismantling of Astra Zeneca’s activity in Stockholm. He cites Martin Ingvar who claims it is unrealistic to expect that international pharmaceutical companies would build from scratch research in Sweden. They would want to come to a flourishing environment and join that. The question then is how do you create that?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I spent ten years at the Wistar Institute in Philadelphia. It was built up from scratch as a private research unit on the campus of a private University, The University of Pennsylvania, an Ivy League University, by Dr. Hilary Koprowski from 1955 to a modern facility that was the second after Stanford University to create patents from medical research in the US. The Wistar Institute of Anatomy and Biology was an old anatomical museum that was turned into a modern research institute in Virology and Cancer. How about some Schumpeterian “creative destruction” in Stockholm that takes the strongest ten percent of the scientists at the dismantled unit of Astra Zeneca and set up a private research unit on the campus of Karolinska Institute?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The question arises if this would only be possible in a five times larger city in a private/private setting or if it would be possible to do in a private/public setting in Stockholm? Is it time to start up private universities in Sweden? The Wistar Institute had a staff of about 120 scientists and 500 in total and was supported by Federal grants to 75% and by companies to 25%. Stockholm lost 2.5 Wistar Institutes. Can one new one emerge?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">One problem arises in that Astra Zeneca does not want their research necessarily to reappear in a competitive setting. Just like GM and Saab there might be analogous problems. It is therefore only realistic to think that some ten percent of the scientist would have significantly unique ideas to build on from scratch to not infringe too much on work already performed elsewhere. It would be hard to compete head on with such strong resources.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">In this context I would also like to raise the question if the Anglo-American research unit is dismantled because of safety concerns. To prevent leakage to Russia, China, and Germany. One of the reasons for Sweden to decide on which side they want to be on is the long term security interest of Sweden. Who do you trust in this world? Where can you do front-line neuro research these days?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-15118829833202068852012-02-09T22:01:00.000+01:002012-02-09T22:01:10.038+01:00Northern Future Forum Stockholm 2012<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: SV;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">”Den nordiska modellen är löst definierad men kan kort beskrivas som en ekonomiskt framgångsrik välfärdsstat med omfattande trygghetssystem, höga skatter och starka fackföreningar. Vissa lägger till jämställdhet mellan könen och ambitiös miljöpolitik.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: SV;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Modellen har alltid förknippats med socialdemokratin och särskilt Stockholm betraktades av internationell vänster länge som ett nytt Jerusalem. Men den tiden kan vara på väg att rinna ut.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-fareast-language: SV;">Göran Eriksson writes this in Svenska Dagbladet today. </span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: SV;">I find a problem with such a definition since “ekonomiskt framgångsrik”, or economically successful, is what pays for all this security. So, what in reality is interesting is how the Nordics can pay for all this, if you exclude Norway with its oil and gas. Why are they economically successful? Civil society not the state is the key. I think my generation grew up with the idea that the state does everything and it still sounds like this. This will probably have to change.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: SV;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">A key issue then is whether this “model” is interesting for Germany and Britain or if we should move in either of their directions instead. Assuming that it will be possible in the future to be friends with both sides, as Reinfeldt suggests. Reinfeldt has brought up the issue of whether there will be money for the Nordic welfare state in the future but this ultimately depends on the business sector performance rather than on the state performance.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: SV;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">PJ Anders Linder at Svenska Dagbladet writes today that the journal Expressen had polled only 2% in favor of Reinfeldt’s 75 year retirement initiative. I guess Reinfeldt wanted to see what the response is to this economic problem. It seem like the message is not taken in properly. Daniel Alling at the Swedish Radio said that Germans had calculated that today 3 people work for one retired person and in a not too distant future 1 person would work for two retired persons. Such examples amount to catastrophe for the welfare model in general. The question then arises if the age of the Nordic model, as it is described above, isn’t at its end?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US; mso-fareast-language: SV;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">From The Nordic Way report from Davos 2011 that was distributed at the Northern Future Forum in Stockholm 2012:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">“Many people see the Nordic countries as some kind of compromise between socialism and capitalism. This is not at all the case, according to Berggren-Trägårdh. Instead, it is the combination of extreme individualism and a strong state that has shaped the fertile ground for an efficient market economy: Less tied down by legal, practical or moral obligations within families, individuals of both sexes become more flexible and available for productive work in a market economy. Gender equality has resulted in both higher fertility rates and higher female participation on the labor market than in other parts of Europe”.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">This report can be taken as evidence for the benefit for Swedes to align to Anglo-America rather than Germany and the Eurozone. However, I am not sure how the authors combine individualism and equality. This seems to be the magic in what they call the Nordic Model, although the economist does not think there is anything to export in this model. The historians talk about trust being important. In Fukuyama’s book, Trust, there seems to be a relatively weak argument for trust being important for economic progress. The historians say that individuality does not have to lead to social fragmentation and it is interesting to note that Hayek used the same argument in 1944 in The Road to Serfdom. Nordic individualism differs from the American by being more friendly to the state. If this report is authentic, there must be some factor that makes individualism coexist with equality in spite of the Law of Jante which would work against it. Milton Friedman said: if you put equality before freedom, you will get neither one. The question is if this rule is valid in the Nordic countries?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-21631204317419216972012-02-08T14:35:00.000+01:002012-02-08T14:35:10.988+01:00Reinfeldt's Point<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">A while ago the Swedish prime minister took up the problem of the projected increases in eldercare and pension costs in a speech. Yesterday he went out prime time with the message that we should start thinking of working to an age of 75. This message comes when the Northern States of Europe including Great Britain is convening in Stockholm for discussions. He is probably saying that it should be possible to work that long, not something all people have to do. The current average retirement age in Sweden is 63 years and that is high in Europe.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Swedish TV gave Reinfeldt a critical response with the selection of interviews down town. He took a little beating but it was a brave move. Most interesting is the comparison with Southern Europe and a large country like France which have a 35 hour week and early retirements with riots occurring when talk about raising the retirement age a couple of years. Reinfeldt is talking 10 years and speaks from a position of having among the best government finances in Europe. He is also quite tough with the comment that if you have had a heavy job, physical or psychological, you should aim to reeducating to a lighter one instead of retiring in a burnt out position. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">On top of this Anders Borg, the Swedish finance minister lectured banks on not taking profit from people with mortgages when the interest rate had been lowered by the Central Bank. The question is how much profit is needed to increase growth and if private consumption or jobs in the banking sector is what is most important. Borg threatened with tax increases on the banks if the margins were not lowered. I am not sure but it seems like the government is creating a conflict with business also in Sweden. The prime minster has called business for a “särintresse” as if business doesn’t seem to have a responsibility for the country.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The mood is rapidly changing. Mario Monti, the non-elected prime minister of Italy, is talking about increasing growth after two years of austerity. The problem is that macroeconomically this is straight forward problem. Germany has to increase consumption to boost foreign demand in the Southern European countries for growth to establish itself. However, Germany is split between those who want to integrate the Eurozone, and perhaps all of Europe with the new 25 country pact, and those who want to opt out of the Euro while there is time. They are against transfers like those made in the US between rich and poor states and they don’t believe in monetary expansion due to the risk for inflation although the ECB just printed some money for banks that were not called quantitative easing. A round sum of some €500bn. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-38253261263381391732012-02-01T20:55:00.000+01:002012-02-01T20:55:21.800+01:00Mitt Romney Won Again!<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The American presidential election selects for both personal character and track record. It is amazing what an ordeal the candidates are going through. Their character is tested over and over again on all kinds of questions. Take the question on the Florida CNN debate on how they would describe their wife. Quite different answers!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">So, Mitt Romney won comfortably last night. What irritates me is that most pundits describe him as dull and as the default candidate. I have heard him speak on some six 1hour 50min effective time debates by now. Personally, I think he stands a good chance of beating Obama and that he stands for the right America, the one I like and the one that makes me agree with Romney: “Believe in America”. America is indeed still the hope for mankind as I know it. Romney actually says this himself now and then.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Interestingly, Romney with his whole being stands for an economic system that is currently under “siege”, as someone just said. It is liberal capitalism on a religious basis. China is state capitalism, autocracy and non-religion. Romney actually stands tall and says he does not like autocracy when even the liberal <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Economist</i> is wavering. That is not dull. Rather quite exiting! This is a top 5% graduate from Harvard Business School and former governor that wants to change how Washington operates and he might just do that.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;"><i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;">The Economist</span></i><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"> is running a debate on liberal capitalism versus state capitalism and they are getting a frightenly even result, 40/60 for the proposition that state capitalism is a viable alternative to liberal capitalism, respectively. Someone at the journal said that they find it easier to do business with the Chinese than with the Germans so the position would be understandable in this light. Yes, the City of London could benefit. However, this is important for the future if Romney wins.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Ian Bremmer who argues for liberal capitalism says that state capitalism is not viable because it is a politically governed adventure that uses the economy for its purpose. The rules of the game would change completely and they operate currently without transparence unlike Norway. I would worry for the R&D in such an economic system that is less natural.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-61349865233439474652012-01-26T15:47:00.002+01:002012-01-26T15:47:44.814+01:00Inequality?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The insight of Adam Smith was to find a path running the economy that aligned itself with human character but he had indeed first written a book that was published prior to 1776 that involved morals. Already in this age it was clear that human character is important for capitalism to work. Smith’s first book <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Theory of Moral Sentiments</i> from 1759 was considered by himself to be his magnum opus.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Greed and corruption is a problem in all economic systems and would not be a reason for dismissing the most natural way of driving an economy. One important issue is how meritocratic societies allocate their talent—in civil society or in the state. It will be very difficult to cooperate between the US and China if they differ in this way. The reason for allocating differently might be the degree to which people are willing to risk their wellbeing. The state or the party offers a more secure job.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Another important issue is the dignity involved in earning your keep and receiving redistributions. It is linked with where you find most of the competence in society. The Chinese might actually think that the state should establish companies and run the economy whereas this is most efficiently performed by civil society in the West. Could redistribution turn the need for human dignity around in China against the grain of normal psychology?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">In Scandinavia redistributions are popular, relatively speaking. Part of the reason for this might be the Law of Jante which says that you should not try to stand out, stay in line, don’t think you are something from a society described by Aksel Sandemose in a book called <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">En flykting korsar sitt spår</i>. Inequality is bad, something that is making a splash internationally currently. The fact is that you say that Anglo-America with its relatively higher inequality is much worse than Scandinavia in this fashion. You would then claim that the culture of Anglo-America is worse than that if Scandinavia and that all British and Americans should become like the Swedes, Norwegians and the Danes. I’m not so sure.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-19323090859738803962012-01-25T13:46:00.002+01:002012-01-25T13:46:10.288+01:00The Tax Thing?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">When they attack Mitt Romney and Warren Buffet for not paying enough taxes because they are taxed around 15-20%, I began thinking about what Obama said tonight: it is common sense that everyone should pay the same percentage? Many tax systems are even progressive and require higher income earner to pay proportionally more. I realize that what I’m going to write is like swearing in the church in Sweden but I don’t agree with the common sensicality with such progressive tax systems. A wealthy person does not cost society more than a less wealthy. Thus lack of common sense in same tax rates because the total amount paid by a wealthy person on a lower percentage could very well be higher than that for a less wealthy person. Rather they provide vital investments with their fortunes that benefit society apart from costing society the same per capita. They often sit on more information that society benefits from as well. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">So what is going on in Scandinavia where people think you should pay more if you are richer. Does a rich person get anything for this, like for example power and influence? In this case people that have other talents than becoming rich should in some fashion be rewarded likewise for justice to reign? SCB.se has data on where tax money comes from. The bulk does not come from the richest fraction but from the middle classes. However, in the US the top 1%, earning more than $500,000 per year, control 40% of the wealth. The bulk of the tax probably still comes from the middle classes in the US. The question then is if it is fair that the richer pay a higher percentage? Milton Friedman advocated a flat tax rate as did some of the Republican presidential candidates lately. Such a tax system has the advantage of being simpler and supposedly bringing in more money per tax rate per person. In other words it is supposedly more efficient. It is possible to think that lower income takers can have less tax but higher income takers the same as the middle class or less? The US has, according to Wikipedia, the most progressive tax system among OECD countries but on a lower average level. Progressivity is derived from the “ability to pay” and as I suggested that is good at the lower incomes but does not necessarily make sense in the higher range. Why should rich and successful individuals give their money to the state instead of managing them themselves? As Lincoln said: government should only do what the individuals cannot do themselves. What is flying around right now in the debate is the notion that it is necessary to tax the rich higher percentages for the state finance s to function. What would this mean? It would mean that we could not live without the rich—an interesting thought.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-43595952114006200532012-01-25T06:25:00.000+01:002012-01-25T06:25:12.139+01:00State of the Union Address 2012<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">It is a nice tradition to participate in the dissemination of US intent for the year. Obamas talk was focused on the issues of the presidential election and he covered the majority of Republican concerns and tried to sound as a Republican. He still talks heartedly about joining across the aisle. He quoted Lincoln, the GOP president, that government should only do what the citizens can’t do by themselves, thus seemingly taking initiative from the Republicans. Since the military is very popular, he used the military as an example of nonpartisan work.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">He did not speak about balancing the budget though and aggressively lowering the debt as the Republicans. He paraphrased Romney and Santorum on bringing the jobs back, however. It was clear from the response of the audience that this is a very important issue. Globalization is dead and fragmentation is here, as I argued earlier. There was clear fighting spirit from the audience on this issue. “With a level playing field, nobody beats the US”. He said that the coming boom in shale gas was due to government research. This is a major issue too but he raised a caveat for disclosure of the chemicals used for environmental safety.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The talk and the response from the audience gave a clear impression of a unified US on the move again. In the Financial Times today there is an article describing that the Davos conference has been placed during the celebration of the Chinese New Year which makes China not sending high level people. Obama almost sounded like Romney in claiming following the rules for trade he also said he had passed less regulatory law than George W Bush. He almost sounded Republican for the sense of unity.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-67673477640492050122012-01-21T19:33:00.001+01:002012-01-21T19:34:32.954+01:00Swedish Opposition Politics?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The Swedish prime minister, Fredrik Reinfeldt, said the other day that there is no relevant opposition and Dick Erixon, a blogger, suggested that the opposition should fuse the Left Party and the Social Democrats under the new leader of the Left Party. The reason is that Håkan Juholt, the former leader of the Social Democrats, resigned today and left the Party in shambles. One of his last public statements was “It is not me, it is the Party”. The Social Democratic Party is in some kind of funk, everybody agrees, but no one talks about what the problem might be. Not long ago they rid themselves of the competent Mona Sahlin, who was better than Juholt, and now who.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">So what ails Swedish Social Democracy? The Danes just elected a coalition led by Social Democracy and in France it is very likely that Francois Hollande of the Partie Socialiste will take over after Nicholas Sarkozy. SPD in Germany might be a strong contender in the next election against Merkel and her CDU. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Welfare might be in trouble that is making Social Democrats wonder if the good years of the West will be replaced by leaner years where it will be more difficult to afford the level of welfare people have gotten used to? Another problem might be the neo-fascism some people have established in Sweden and that there should be problems accepting the continuous development of the guiding control state that massacre individualism that otherwise is more and more important for entrepreneurism and innovation on all levels of society. Then I don’t know if Social Democrats are worse than other politicians to use this sort of techniques.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Social Democrats then seem to hold on to the equality parameter which is talked about even in liberal environments like the US. Belief in capitalism is down to 60% from 80% in the US and this country was known for not demonstrating envy of wealth but rather admire those that do well. Not so really in Sweden. <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Financial Times</i> is running a series of articles on the “Crisis of Capitalism”. The consensus seems to be that there is no other system and that we have to endure the downsides. There is also a sense that honor should reenter the game—less greed. The political opposition in Sweden doesn’t seem to discuss this however. Most people agree on equality of opportunity but the crucial question that separates Europe from the US is equality of outcome. Together with security it anchors Europe at a lower GDP growth and higher unemployment.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Using partly the same welfare idea as the Social Democrats the Alliance parties, The Moderates, The People’s Party, The Center Party and the Swedish CDU, have annihilated the idea of Social Democratic opposition. My humble question is, however, if it would not be better leaving focus on the welfare state on the opposition and advocating a more American republican line that would address problems in the future with focus on individuality, liberation of labor laws, and freedom. It seems like Europe is suffocating itself compared to North America. Europe has a great advantage though. It pays less than half for comparative health care but the US economy still seems to be more alert, adaptive and dynamic.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-1371753808915188232012-01-11T21:03:00.003+01:002012-01-13T15:44:30.149+01:00The Road to Serfdom<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I have been reading Hayek’s best-selling cult book <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Road to Serfdom</i> and the problem is that I don’t know if it is the 1930s again. According to my experience the last 13 years a new type of fascism is back to haunt us. The problem is I don’t know how spread these practices are. In Sweden they could be, as Hayek suggests, the result of years of social democracy that has formed the nation of Sweden.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Behavior wise this might be derived from the need from societal guidance rather than individualism where more people have things to say about each person’s behavior and thus there would be more occasions for punishment which could act over the years. People that are more orderly could suffer from greater risk of cyclically develop fascism. There is a problem with political violence currently.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">According to Hayek individualism promotes a social process of super-individual forces that drives the growth of reason. I must say I buy into this principle all the way. It is the same principle that makes basic science work to the benefit of mankind. Hayek said that tending a civilization as a gardener tends a plant by understanding its structure and function is the best approach. Only one civilization bloomed so far in the 1500s to 1600s and this has fertilized all others.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Another point Hayek might have made is that freedom is more important than security, what is called “trygghet” in Swedish. The US is less secure than Europe and risk taking is something that the Americans are fond of. They lie closer to the edge and try more things and it is possible to come back after a bankruptcy. What would be interesting to know if this attitude difference has anything to do with the proficiency and creativity in science as well as in business? Business pays in a way for science so there is definitely an indirect effect. American freedom has lured many a scientist and innovator to the US though, despite of less security.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">A person like Hayek is not throwing people on the street though. He says in 1944: “but there can be no doubt that some minimum of food, shelter, and clothing, sufficient to preserve health and the capacity for work, can be assured to everybody”. This sounds like an ordinary Swedish “försörjningsstöd”. What is becoming more of an issue these days, and which is more readily state by Americans, is that the European welfare model could turn out to be too expensive when four times as many people from China and India is joining the race. The Italian welfare minister cried in public when the new technocrat prime minister laid down his new budget.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Individualism breeds tolerance the lack of which is an increasing problem in Europe the last years. Right wing populism is back and in Hungary Victor Orban is trying to make his country more autocratic which luckily the EU is trying to prevent and is reacting on. Well, how serious is the situation? What bothers me is that everyone is trying to tell me that I should not complain and that I exaggerate. However, if I can’t complain on what I have encountered, there is real trouble in Europe.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-79352705569227846232011-12-22T14:03:00.001+01:002011-12-22T14:03:26.950+01:00Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year?Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-27430879619101507302011-12-15T15:03:00.002+01:002011-12-15T15:09:53.727+01:00Romney for President<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Looked at what I could find on the Republican presidential debates. Mathias Sundin writes on his blog about it but I decided to take a look myself to get a feel for the candidates. By now there is in principle only Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich left the couple of weeks before the election. Romney is the stable one and Gingrich is getting all kinds of critique but is most popular in the polls right now. That is a pity. I think Romney comes across at the most suitable candidate. As a businessman and former governor he would be able to contact the important business sector that Obama has alienated himself from. As a former governor that has balanced budgets and gotten rid of a deficit he has the right experience. He also personally comes across as the most presidential of the candidates. He returns to the subject of reorganizing America for growth and function all the time when other candidates get lost in details. Republican candidates are really serious about not increasing federal spending something that just gets lost here in Europe because of the way they tax and spend here. They say that they don’t afford increasing spending, period. There is apparently also a discussion on how to change Medicare which is totally unfunded by now. If the republican voter choses Gingrich rather than the moderate Romney there would be a distinct shift to the right. Gingrich have said he would choose the firebrand John Bolton, the UN ambassador of George W Bush, to become his Secretary of State. I could not see the US with this package. Also Romney is scoring better against Obama than Gingrich and thus would have a greater chance of becoming president.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-34067454937460280102011-12-13T16:50:00.000+01:002011-12-13T16:50:08.800+01:00I Think I'm Becoming More of a Conservative<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I salute David Cameron for his veto to the EU because I think I have become more conservative and appreciate the maintenance of Anglo-American culture versus the new form of polity that is emerging in Europe under the leadership of Germany. Liberal seems to mean merging the Anglo-American culture with the Continental which is not realistic. Gideon Rachman points out in his column that the Netherlands and France seem to be hanging rather lose in the new constellation formed. France because the socialists, if they win in the spring, would opt against. What I don’t like with the Germans so far is the strong anti-Americanism displayed in their English propaganda magazine <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Spiegel Online International</i>. The English journals and magazines are more neutral against Germany.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sweden has ended up in a precarious situation the reason for which I am a little unsure. I had this idea that the Swedes that historically have had a soft spot for the strong leader would have liked the EU and to become more of a guided citizen of Europe than a member of the “free world” now when crisis strikes and federalism is back on the agenda. Many politicians and industry in Sweden are German and would like an EMU membership but the populace is to 80% against this development currently. This surprised me actually and the question is if this is Germanophobia, Anglophilia, or just holding tight in your wallet for southern profligacy? The fact that English is used in media and music to a great extent in Sweden probably adds to the ambivalence. Birgitta Ohlsson, the EU minister, Jan Björklund, party leader in the People’s Party, and Carl B Hamilton, chairman of the EU commission today write in <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Svenska Dagbladet</i> <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>that Sweden should join the “core of Europe”. That would mean EMU membership or at least membership in the new coalition. The new suggested Left Party leader Jonas Sjöstedt immediately takes a point that they act against the people. It is interesting to find Tories side by side with Swedish Left Partiers!<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">People are demonstrating in Italy because of Monti’s austerity measures which raise the question if the German austerity way is actually going to destabilize Europe. If these problems become more severe this might lead to a notion from the market that a federalization attempt of the Eurozone would not add to financial improvement. People seem therefore have lost hope and walk out on the street without a clear objective. They do not sense the reality of the emergency. Large numbers are just large numbers and not years of hard work with less to balance the books. They feel unfairly treated and cheated by everybody. Almost all serious writes that publish in the free media diagnose the problem as a problem of a widening gap between the rich and the poor. In order to entice investors Merkozy let the private investors off the hook in the deal and loaded the problem onto the taxpayers, something that did not show very clearly in the aftermath.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">What kind of new culture is forming under Germany on the Continent then? It is different both in its economy and in its general culture. Germany is well founded in philosophy, literature and music but it is not clear exactly where they stand politically, except that they have a right of center and a left of center party with a strong former communist block as of recently. Catholicism will be a strong factor in its development. They even have a German-born and raised Pope. That is a factor that ameliorates the fusion with Poland but not with Sweden. Britain is a more secular and religiously open-minded country which fits better with the liberal immigration politics of Sweden. The Orthodox Greeks are culturally and economically way out as I pointed out before. How does Catholicism influence people then compared to a more secular religiously open-minded setting. It could have an effect on the degree of privacy due to the culture of the Confession. Personally I believe strongly that maintaining privacy is a survival factor for future civilizations.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">What does Britain have to offer the Swedes then? Its culture multiplies the knowledge-factor via the second language with a factor of at least ten times. We can directly access the Anglo-American literature and all its text books for academia. Unless Sweden would go back to German as a second language they will always have problems on the Continent. The problem there for the Germans is clear. Their language does not sound that attractive so it does not work as efficiently to foster a culture as English. Therefore there is a risk that there will be harder power than what would be needed in the English case. In an era where teaming up to survive is becoming more and more necessary to challenge the gargantuan Chinese state it is important to realized that Sweden is a small country which has to form ties with for them the right partners. The time has come again for a decision. Last time around Sweden made a U-turn after the war. Will they make a U-turn post battle this time when the smoke clears?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-5849289744517189322011-12-11T17:06:00.002+01:002011-12-11T17:06:57.827+01:00The Post-World War II Era in a Nutshell?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The following is a tale created by excerpts from Samuel P Huntington’s Political Order in Changing Societies from 1968 with my comments in brackets:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The most important political distinction among countries concerns not their form of government but their degree of government. The differences between democracy and dictatorship are less than the differences between those countries whose politics embodies consensus, community, legitimacy, organization, effectiveness, stability, and those countries whose politics is different in these qualities.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The US, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union have different forms of government, but in all systems the government governs. [Fukuyama did not like this one]<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I do know, Walter Lippman has observed, that there is no greater necessity for men who live in communities than that they be governed, self-governed if possible, well governed if they are fortunate, but in any event, governed.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">In politics, as in economics, the gap between developed political systems and underdeveloped political systems, between civic polities and corrupt polities, has broadened.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">During the 1950s and 1960s the numerical incidence of political violence and disorder increased dramatically in most countries of the world. This was due to rapid social change and the rapid mobilization of new groups into politics coupled with the slow development of political institutions.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The equality of political participation is growing much more rapidly that the art of associating together. Social and economic change—urbanization, increases in literacy and education, industrialization, mass media expansion—extend political consciousness, multiply political demands, broaden political participation. The primary problem of politics is the lag in the development of political institutions behind social and economic change.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">[Huntington’s book came out 1968 as governments started to apply the technology. The democratic wave he then observed was probably due to this application where political institutions where suppressed rather than extended in scope. We might be in a phase where this suppression is giving in and the social and economic development have ran ahead of the suppressed new-speak political development. It went well in the Age of Transformation and Optimism but now in the Age of Anxiety we will be governed by people that never knew how “normal” life was—the driven people. Has the psychology of man changed with the technology use?]<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">In American thinking, the causal chain was: economic assistance promotes economic development, economic development promotes political stability. However, economic development and political stability are two independent goals and progress toward one has no necessary connection with progress toward the other.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">A second reason for American indifference to political development was the absence in the American historical experience of the need to found a political order. This gap in historical experience made them particularly blind to the problems of creating effective authority in modernizing countries.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Madison warned in The Federalist No 51: the great difficulty lies in this: you must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place oblige it to control itself. The primary problem is not liberty but the creation of a legitimate public order. Authority has to exist before it can be limited, and it is authority that is in scarce supply in those modernizing countries where government is at the mercy of alienated intellectuals, rambunctious colonels, and rioting students.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">[The development of social and political order decreased severely with the introduction of technology governance. Development was frozen in time. The worst example was perhaps Libya. In developed countries where the political order was established we found a different development post-1968. However, was the fall of the Soviet Union due to a technology –induced crash? Is the polarization seen in the US right now due to larger hostility between systems of people due to the technology? In my experience people in systems have reverted to clannish behavior. It is on/off behavior.]<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-6123869667848787572011-12-09T13:33:00.000+01:002011-12-09T13:33:07.773+01:00Brussels 2011: The First Battle of New-Democracy, or "New-Speak"?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">It seems like 17 or 23 countries will follow Germany into a second floor in the EU as expected. Britain vetoed the regular EU deal. Indeed, this is an interesting situation for an Anglo-American. On the one hand saving the Eurozone is good for the economy in the short run. On the other, this makes Germany powerful and can harm the economy by V1s and V2s towards the City of London later.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I must say I have a problem with this development of the democracy concept that has taken place the last 40 years or so. I don’t know if it is an improvement or something that has the potential of authoritarianize the whole situation. My experience with the new democracy, or “new speak”, is rather awful. Dehumanization, violence, threats, property right violations, loss of integrity! It smells communism and totalitarianism. With the risk of making a fool out of myself, I’m inclined to ask the question if the cultures of Germany, Japan, Russia and China will revert to fascism of a socialist kind? I’m posing the question to myself, which culture will prove most resistant to “new speak” in the body?<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Beginning in the Middle East we found out that people want change. It is understandable that the quest for a new world began where the pressure was hardest. It seems to have moved to Russia now following this gradient, discounting the Occupy movement which is a little different in character. That we are talking about a global problem is clear from the words of a Tunisian poet Abou el-Kacem al Chebbi “If, one day, a people decides to live, fate will answer their call.” Sounds quite Western to me actually. There is no life under “new speak”. The American Independence Declaration is under severe pressure at the moment.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-77653447402649667912011-12-08T16:47:00.001+01:002011-12-08T16:49:52.442+01:00Brussels meeting on the Euro?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Tried to use the occasion for the meeting to gain in understanding on the current situation in Europe. The top government officials in Sweden are taking a cautious stance on the Eurozone political maturation issue. Swedish voter interest in the Euro has plummeted so the Swedes are running away from the problem whereas the Poles are trying to help by joining as soon as possible with higher growth than the Eurozone average. Sweden will help via the IMF though.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Swedish officials don’t think the crisis is a political crisis as I do. Part of this reason seems to be that Europe is solvent and in better economic shape than the US. This is, I think, a very good argument for the crisis being rather political. What Merkozy wants by introducing the Maastricht criteria again in a new form is hard to understand though. The whole charade seems to work, sort of, but it might be borderline knife-wrestling. Someone said that this is not a debt crisis it is rather a current account crisis, ie having used current account rather than budget deficit maximum of 3% and the public debt maximum of 60% would have predicted the crisis. Using 3/60 would not have predicted the crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">At the same time as it might be absolutely essential for making progress the fiscal union/integration issue is causing ire in other countries that are beginning to feel sidelined. Britain does not want the Eurozone to go down for the sake of its economy but would probably don’t mind politically. However, since the “peripheral” countries are withdrawing from the issue the only way forward is indeed a fortified Eurozone. It is unlikely that Merkozy will manage to entice all 27 countries and instead move forward with the 17.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The question is if an “economic government”, a second floor on the EU edifice is necessary. How much of a charge on democracy would be possible to use to save the Eurozone? Neither France nor Germany would want an official loss of sovereignty though. Is the current affair an attempt to secure the cooperation of financial workers in another fashion? Is the elite placing tentacles that the populace is not controlling? The reason I’m asking is the serious writers call the meeting “making a fudge”. If people meet to do the same as earlier, that did not work earlier, my guess is that they need a cover for something else. I understand it is very uneuropean to question the good intent of the meeting but who are we trying to fool here? In any case, it is fascinating that the issue is so polarized among those that think the Euro will fall and those that think we have business as usual. This is not economics. This is politics.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-63693713846935929132011-11-30T20:52:00.000+01:002011-11-30T20:52:22.819+01:00To Veto, or not to Veto?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Radoslav Sikorski, the Polish foreign minister, says two important things. He fears German inactivity more than more conventional threats because it would lead to a Eurozone collapse. He also says it must be possible to govern Europe and suggests that the veto right of individual countries should be removed. This would mean that Germany, which Sikorski calls an indispensible nation in Europe, could form coalitions and vote through their decisions, ie govern. Other powerful members could do the same later if things would change. If it becomes possible to govern Europe, markets would be pleased and interest rates would go down to alleviate the debt crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I did not find the information that Europe should be governable through the removal of the veto in Sikorski’s recent <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Financial Times</i> paper but in </span><a href="http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/d58fd4c2-1a9c-11e1-ae4e-00144feabdc0.html#axzz1eqCIBhVn"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">today’s editorial</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">, he might have said it at his talk on Monday. It would of course be a fundamental change where more influence would be ascribed to the countries in Europe which do well rather than to all countries equally. More function, less solidarity. An “economic government” could be formed with such a 17 or 27 “party” system. Majority coalitions would form and be subject to revision according to country performance.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">I submitted a post in January this year </span><a href="http://janthurinstankar.blogspot.com/2011/01/euroland.html"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">on my blog</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;"> that discussed a theoretical construct of “influence points” in the EU that would give incentives to participate in a transfer union, ie you get “paid” for contributing money to the EU. It would perhaps be easier to remove the veto function for members? In practice the veto function was removed already for Greece and Italy which just had to do what they were told in order for the Eurozone to survive. Right now it does not seem like a transfer union is possible, Germany does not have that much money anyhow, but rather a pact where fiscal control and austerity was enforced harder. One thing is clear, it is difficult to find solutions with the current set-up of the Union. It is rather like it is constructed not to work and the markets don’t believe in it anymore.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">If I have understood the concept of an “economic government” of the type proposed by Nicolas Sarkozy in 2008, it would be superimposed onto EU in the Eurozone. That means it would be independent of the Commission, The Council and the Parliament. The question is then how many countries of the original 17 that will remain there after the smoke clears. Spain has gotten the good word lately. Italy is on/off and Greece is likely to disappear.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">A system for the Eurozone where you get something extra for good performance would create a national goal that would help motivate people more than just doing well for their own country. Participation would be more serious and competitive. Paying large sums of money without getting anything for it does not seems to work, although people are speaking for solidarity in times of crisis.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-34818017149557108072011-11-20T14:47:00.002+01:002011-11-20T14:54:18.759+01:00Niall Ferguson's Take on Europe?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Niall Ferguson has written a ten year projection on Europe, </span><a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203699404577044172754446162.html?mod=googlenews_wsj"><span style="color: blue; font-family: Calibri;">The Saturday Essay</span></a><span style="font-family: Calibri;">, on wsj.com. I guess this is the kind of thing he dishes out to students at Harvard for comments. Therefore I can’t resist the temptation to comment myself, albeit on a more humble level.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Ferguson thinks Norway will pop the question about a Nordic Union with Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Iceland, and Finland but he does not think they would be in close contact with Britain. This idea was up for discussion in the Swedish press not long ago. They even speculated on how to fuse the different royal houses into one. At the time I thought this was irrelevant because of the presence of the European Union. Why one more? The foreign minister of Sweden, Carl Bildt, thought the same way. The Nordic countries are actually quite different, especially Finland, which is already a member of the Eurozone. Ferguson thinks they would change allegiance, apparently. This is perhaps not so likely. There is a movement in Finland right now in the other direction. They want to remove Swedish from their schools. Finland was taken from Sweden 1809 by Russia after having been together for 700 years. This legacy means many Finns speak Swedish. Being close to Russia after years of Finlandization they rather cuddle up to Germany and the Eurozone for independence of a sort they prefer.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Sweden might also be in the mood of joining the Eurozone according to the politicians and the industry. It makes sense both economically and security wise. It is interesting that very little of current discussions on Europe involves NATO and security issues. America has vanished from the equation. It seems like Germany and the zone has supplanted it. People giving opinions on the matter in the Swedish press thinks Sweden, Denmark, and Britain will be forced to join the zone and support countries in trouble. Only the independently wealthy Norwegians seems to be able to do as they please. If politicians and industry in Sweden want to join Germany, it still might be difficult to convince the populace which watches British and American TV every day and don’t want to pay for the profligate Greeks. However, if the US can’t fix their gridlock in Congress soon and start working on their debt, people will lose their sense of security from the US and turn to Germany for comfort.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Ferguson is bullish on Britain and wishes it will stay out of the Eurozone which is my feeling also. He thinks Ireland would rejoin the English kingdom which I would also believe on cultural vibes. The Brits would not ever join the Eurozone and I have earlier suggested that they would form not Taiwan but Japan outside a Chinese equivalent Continent. He thinks Britain would be preferred for banking by China rather than Brussels although he envisions some sale of assets to the Chinese to go with that. When the ten Euro-countries fall to the Germans, that Ferguson suggests, there will be a new phase in European development built on German language and culture. Maybe Brussels will be moved to Berlin rather than to Vienna that Ferguson suggests. When France, Spain, Italy and seven other countries fall, people would flee to the security of a joined Eurozone that keeps the Russians at bay.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Ferguson seems to have an idea that the SPD would gain momentum is Germany. Angela Merkel, raised in East Germany, does have a streak of Social Democrat over her politics so maybe he is right and that the Eurozone will become something to the clear left of the US and Britain, even if the Democrats rule. Sweden’s center-right is also moving leftwards. What happens in China will probably also be important in terms of foreign investments. If China becomes socialist rather than robber baron capitalist they might favor the Eurozone preferentially over the new English kingdom. Personally I have this naïve idea that the US and Europe would start investing in jobs in their own hemispheres rather than in Asia, despite short sighted growth aspects and then Britain could count on support from this angle as well.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">In 2012, Ferguson believes, Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities with all problems thus induced, like a blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. I don’t think this is likely. According to <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">The Economist</i> the Israeli military is against such a move which is going to be too problematic. My feeling is that the Arab Spring is slowly going to make the region Islamist/socialist. That would make the Israeli position continuously worsening as the US seems to leave the area for South East Asia in their Pacific Century. The response to the Muslim world is then going to be focused on the relationship with Europe which differs between The New English Kingdom and the Eurozone, or The United States of Europe, as Ferguson calls it. Israel does not have a good relationship with Europe, unfortunately, and might be forced into accepting to give up it Jewish state for something similar to South Africa, since Europe is so heavily on the side of the Palestinians, which I’m personally not. The fact The Arab Union went against Assad, sort of, is though a positive sign for the area, that could speak for a relative future stability.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Wolfgang Münchau at the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Financial Times</i> the other day claimed that saving the Euro would destroy the EU. Ferguson is on the same track. It is very likely that Germany with its “not now but later” approach have worked the situation into a two pronged result. Either they become rulers of the Eurozone with a weakened France or the whole thing falls apart with them still standing on the remnants to mind their own business with Russia.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-36582582638074187942011-11-18T13:27:00.001+01:002011-11-18T13:28:31.372+01:00The Moderates and the Social Democrats in Sweden moves in the German direction<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Muddling through seems less and less an objective for the elites in Europe. The cost of borrowing threatens to strangulate the Euro zone and the independence of the ECBs printing press is at risk at the peril of future inflation. However, according to World Weekly at the <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Financial Times</i> edited by Gideon Rachman, 80% of Germans think the Euro zone will survive.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Former EMU propagator Göran Persson, the former Swedish Prime Minister and a Social Democrat, now says that Sweden should join. So says another former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, who is the current Foreign Minister and a Moderate. The Swedish people is not there yet though. There is not a majority for EMU membership at the polls.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Bildt and Persson talks like there is no risk for the Euro but David Cameron would rather see a networked Europe of independent states fearing that a fortified Euro zone would start to dominate the peripheral countries in the EU. According to the latest news, however, he agrees with Angela Merkel concerning the need for Lisbon Treaty change, as long as the cash cow, The City of London, which supplies 30% of British GDP, is not made less globally competitive by enemy legislation or taxation.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">In other words, Merkel is beginning to have an effect on northern Europe as the British press is increasingly doubting the viability of the Euro, to the irritation of Berlin who claims media has been against it all along. Detailing how an economic program for saving the Euro is beyond most people but deciding whether or not they are British or German should be more feasible and my earlier request for the official Swedish position on this question seems to have been answered. Not only the Swedish business community, which trades preferably with Germany, but also the two main parties are now for Germany.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">My one or the other kind of argument is not shared by David Miliband or the Labor party in Britain who wrote the other day that Britain needed Germany and who argued for a fortified EU. He calls being “outside” the EU a disaster for Britain. Cameron, on the other hand, is pressured by at least 100 MPs in this direction. It is understandable that many Brits would not mind that the Euro zone, as a future potential adversary, would disintegrate. It is a straight forward balance of power argument. A multipolar Europe rather than a divisive block construction.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Gideon Rachman argued for an orderly dismantlement but was told that this might lead to such disorder that extremist parties might get power in Europe again. I’m not convinced this would happen, though, we are not far enough from the war yet. But the problem of how to organize Europe still does not have a clear answer that can be formulated in the press for the people to take in.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Someone wrote today that politics is still at the top despite global finance. It has its own politics and as the Occupy movement has demonstrated, as has reactions in Europe of other kinds, some people don’ t like this politics. The politics of global finance is today nation-building in Asia and nation deconstruction and austerity in the West. No doubt there is a reaction. It is also funny to see how it is assumed that the economy in Asia is more powerful that in the West when it is immature and cannot really be compared with the economy in the West.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Following what has been written about the possibilities for Italy to get out of its predicament is not particularly hopeful. The press is against Italy but evidently seasoned politicians in Sweden and also Britain is for Italy. The math, which is simple enough, is clearly against. Politicians must therefore factor in a change of heart that has taken place in southern Europe for reform.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7491397059742750822.post-43667125843552469432011-11-17T12:45:00.000+01:002011-11-17T12:45:15.391+01:00The Next Trend?<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Samuel P Huntington wrote the following in his 1996 book <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Clash of Civilizations</i>:<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">“In the early 1990s, Chinese made up 1% of the Philippine population but were responsible for 35% of the sales of domestically owned firms. In Indonesia in the mid-1980s, the Chinese were 2-3% of the population but owned roughly 70% of the private domestic capital. Seventeen of the twenty-five largest businesses were Chinese-controlled, and one Chinese conglomerate was responsible for 5% of Indonesia’s GDP. In the early 1990s, the Chinese were 10% of Thailand’s population but owned 9 of the 10 largest business groups and were responsible for 50% of its GDP. Chinese are about one third of the population in Malaysia but completely dominate the economy.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The US is going Pacific and the UK is pondering Europe. David Cameron is talking about a “networked Europe” rather than a block Europe. The Germans, however, wants “more Europe” which probably means a more German Europe, if Angela Merkel is going to get full support from the Germans. Thus the new trend is that the US is facing stiff competition from the Chinese in East Asia and the Pacific and the UK in Continental Europe.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Another new trend might be the language question. Mandarin Chinese might take over much of the English dominance in East Asia and German might have a renaissance on the Continent. Culture follows power! Before World War II Swedish children learned German as their first foreign language.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">Anglo-Americans and also other Europeans might though find comfort in the following statistic: <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">“If demographic trends continue, well over 50% of the world’s Christians will be in Africa, Latin America, and parts of Asia within 25 years—a clear shift from Christianity’s traditional home in Europe and North America.”<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">It is from the 2010 book <i style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal;">Religion and Politics in America: Faith, Culture, and Strategic Choices</i> by Robert Booth Fowler et al. Perhaps we should let the Chinese dominate East Asia and focus on South America and Africa which even lies in our time zones and where we are more likely to find hearts and minds than in the assertive Asia.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">This book also tries to explain how a religious America works compared to a secular China. The religious pluralism observed in America functions as a vent for freedom making possible a streamlined collective approach in the economy. People will feel free with maintained integrity as long as they can exercise their faith. <o:p></o:p></span></span></div><br />
<div class="MsoNormal" style="margin: 0cm 0cm 10pt;"><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ansi-language: EN-US;"><span style="font-family: Calibri;">The last 20 or so years in the US feature what could be called the Fifth Great Awakening with an increase especially in evangelical Protestantism. The First Great Awakening in American came before the Revolution in the 18<sup><span style="font-size: x-small;">th</span></sup> century. Periodically America turns spiritual and looks for the next political reform. We have yet to see what lies in stock this time.<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>Jan Thurinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06612355937733737615noreply@blogger.com0