Poland and the EU?

EUobserver / EU's dream candidate wins Polish election: "The 58-year-old historian, aristocrat and former anti-Communist activist is set to be inaugurated in mid-August to become Poland's fifth head of state since the fall of Communism in 1989. The outcome is a victory for the younger, urban class of Poles in northern and western Poland, who have prospered over the past 20 years and who see the country's future in terms of further EU integration, market liberalisation and reconciliation with Germany and Russia."

Bronislaw Komorowski won over Jaroslaw Kaczynski with 53% of the vote against 47%. A close call for EU favorables who happily received the news. This makes it possible for Donald Tusk, the Prime Minister, and his party the Civic Platform to dominate the scene for a while. Tusk and Komorowski are very favorable to the EU and indeed want to join the Euro as soon as possible. The Kaczynskis on the other have had a much more nationalistic bent. The Polish people thus are divided between those that want to integrate in the EU and those who want to maintain Polish integrity. Thus the maturity of the Polish democracy will be tested.

The longing of an integral Poland is understandable. Poland lost 6m people during World War II and have been occupied by the Soviet Union for so many years. However, sandwiched between Russia and Germany, Poland also hopes that the EU will buffer their power and that membership will afford stability and prosperity. Carl Bildt claims that Tusk, Komorowski and Sikorski is more amenable to Swedish collaboration.

The Catholic Church played an important role during the liberation from the Soviet Union, but now with Kaczynski era over due to the Smolensk disaster where Kaczynski friends preferentially were eradicated, perhaps its importance will be less influential. Poland will thus become more of a normal European state. According to the above citation young urban Poles have prospered a lot and many of them are probably connected with the 15 to 20m diaspora, to be compared with a population of 40m, which have been important for the post-communistic growth of Poland. Some 8m Poles live in the US and Chicago is the second largest Polish city in the world. I don't know how symbolic it was of Poland to chose the 4th of July for the Presidential election.

However, Jaroslaw Kaczynskis strong showing in the second round of the election points in a direction were Bronislaw Komorowski might not dare to make necessary reforms due to soon upcoming elections which could be utilized by Kaczynski.

Great Britain--Club Med--GPR axis?

A Franco-Italian axis in Europe? EurActiv: "An unusual Franco-Italian duo has emerged in recent weeks to influence EU decisions on everything ranging from aid to Athens to climate change, as Germany appears increasingly reluctant to take any new major European initiatives."

Apparently Silvio Berlusconi and Nicolas Sarkozy found each other in the recent debate on how to deal with the predicament of Greece. Together they forced Angela Merkel to accept a 5% interest rate for loans rather than the market level on approximately 7.5%. A subsidy according to the German voters and actually not allowed according to EU rules, thus an inkling of federalism despite the rulings of Germany's Constitutional Court.

New formations are being probed now in the wake of the Greek debt crisis. The English press now also discusses the German-Polish-Russian axis. We are talking about some 240m people, half of EU just counting GPR, with a large chunk of the European GDP. The question is if the appreciation of these new power divisions are already trickling down to the public in Britain since the EU and even Euro friendly Liberal Democrats are doing so well right now? A last minute attempt to catch the train? I would not be so sure myself though, since I don't think Russia has changed much since Georgia. Poland probably is in an unholy alliance where Scylla and Charybdis are preying on each other each with different thoughts in mind for the future? The EU project was much more of a sunshine story. My feeling is that Russia wants to politically control its former Soviet states but want EU to provide FDI. The recently elected Mr Yanukovich of Ukraine made his first trip to EU not the Kremlin despite being a Ukrainian that only speak Russian, not Ukrainian.

The Swedish Election debate should include a discussion on the new GPR reality. Sweden and Finland gave their blessings to the Nord Stream pipeline to Germany, but probably not to Russia. Is Sweden reverting to a neutrality politics or are they entering into a new discussion on the earlier suggested security arrangements involving Russia. Dimitry Medvedev, the Russian president, have been wanting to bring these discussions up but have been discouraged by Hilary Clinton, the US State Department head. The uncertainty of the foreign policy of the Red-Green alliance due to 'Vänsterpartiet', the Left Party, might not mind such a development. Anders Fogh Rasmussen have even suggested that NATO should engage Russia in a missile defence against Iran. Where is Sweden on this not being a NATO member? Perhaps Russia and Germany are already so involved with each other on much of the regional development that NATO remains a simple paper tiger? In this case Merkel might soon pop the question if Sweden is in or out.

What about Britain then? Ross Douthat on the New York Times discuss the Tories in his latest column. The Tories are not really in bed with the American GOP, if I understand it correctly. What is important for the above discussion though is the relative euroscepticism of the Tories. David Cameron removed his party from the EPP group in the European parliament seemingly to distance himself from Sarkozy and Merkel. The move is part of the precipitation of the GPR axis. I have been trying to understand Cameronism, his "Big Society". It seems like it is more political philosophy than something practical that would bring Britain back in shape. Why would Big Society need Cameron? Politicians are taking care of the state, be it Small Government. Is he trying to say Popes and Politicians unite?

Poland and Hungary--New type of communism?

Poland: Out of tragedy, normality The Economist: "The suspicion lingers that the country’s old communist elite and their children have morphed into a new nomenklatura. Poles call this idea the Uklad, an all-but-untranslatable word meaning “deal”, “arrangement” or “system”. The price of the communist surrender in 1989 was that the old elite was able to turn its power into wealth, using connections, slush funds and privileges to gain a head start in the country’s shift to capitalism. The Kaczynskis found that idea repellant. They wanted a fresh start and called it a "Fourth Republic"."

Well, Victor Orban, the probable new prime minister of Hungary, started out in the Communist party and in Poland the Uklad is powerful. Perhaps it would be appropriate here to mention the fact the China is ruled by a Communist party.

My fear is that instead of having free people following their individualistic drives building Cameronian "Big Societies" there might be a new type of steering mechanism in play that make things work, for a while. A state in the state on a black economy?

If Europe now is entering a new phase where the ever closer union is replaced by an ever surer disjunction, in the wake of the defining Greece debt crisis, countries like Hungary could be come disillusioned because they have had, according to the Eurobarometer poll, greater confidence in the institutions of the EU rather than in their own. Furthermore, they have not like East Germany been refurbish by a trillion Euro infusion that still have not normalized the situation in the now eastern parts of Germany.

I can hear old communists, out of less loss of pride, say we did not just have the tools required?

The communist ghost is still alive

Putin Observes Anniversary of Katyn Killings - NYTimes.com: "Some Russian leaders have continued Soviet responsibility for the murders, even though Russia released archival documents in 1992 showing that Stalin's politbureau ordered the massacre in March 1940. Russia’s Communist Party chastised Mr. Putin on Wednesday for “going to Katyn to apologize.” In a statement on its Web site, the party said, “You can apologize as much as you want about the so-called Soviet guilt, but no one can hide the fact of German responsibility for the shootings of Polish soldiers.”"

Well, Putin did not give an official apology and said that the Russian people were not at fault. It was 22,000 people that vanished. It seems like this is not significant compared to the 25m Russians that died during the war. Hitler did not factor in such a sacrifice.

Not so well known in Sweden and perhaps most of all a Polish tragedy, the massacre was first blamed on Germany because the Soviets were allies with the West against them, then later allies against Japan. Today Russia has laid formal evidence on the table and Putin's gesture of going there might have new meanings in the present axis of Germany-Poland-Russia described by Joschka Fischer, a former foreign minister of Germany, recently in an article on DN.se. Such a formation is going to put divisional stress on Poland. There will be German friends and Russian friends and no friends at all.

So, it is a little hard to see whether Vladimir Putin is mildly remorseful towards Poland or if he is signalling responsibility towards Germany. In the best of worlds it could be a sign of rapprochement between Poland and Russia that the old Communists apparently tease Putin about with their reference to Canossa. In the worst case Putin is just saying I can go this far but not longer.

The gesture might, however, be enough to smoothen the Russia-EU ties which are often hampered by Polish-Russian animosities. It follows the September 2009 condemnation of the Nazi-Soviet pact that led to the partition of Poland in 1939. Guido Westerwelle, the German foreign minister, has also indicated the importance of good ties with their neighbor Poland. Studio Ett on the Swedish public radio claims that Polish media saw the meeting between Putin and Tusk, the Polish PM, as a Polish propaganda victory.

Further Integration of Europe?

Letter From Europe - U.S. Slights a Disunited Europe - NYTimes.com: "Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain is facing an election campaign. Besides, he has little interest in Europe. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany have supported the United States in seeking stronger sanctions against Iran. Apart from that, neither leader has shown great interest in pursuing the further integration of Europe that is crucial for making the bloc more united in defense and security policy."

Judy Dempsey paints a disheartening picture of the idiom "two is company three is a crowd". Joschka Fischer, a former foreign minister of Germany, says that Guido Westerwelle, the present foreign minister, wants to form an axis of Poland, Germany and France, the so called Weimar triangle. He himself thinks there should be an axis Russia, Poland and Germany instead that can keep Ukraine democratic. Fischer seems to mean that the future of Europe, or an Eastern oriented Europe, where France and Great Britain is left for themselves. In the middle of this Hilary Clinton, Secretary of State, seems to think that there is only one Europe, but perhaps not, since President Obama does not want to show due to the disunity?

Then all of a sudden Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy pleasantly announce an integration document with 80 points on how they see further integration of central Europe possible. It is a ten year plan called the "2020 Agenda". Among other things it is meant that the number of College and Doctor's degrees is supposed to double at Franco-German universities during this time. Common school-books and simpler rules for Franco-German marriages are also planned. France is also going to support a seat for Germany at the UN Security Council.

Personally I believe in further integration of Europe, and to enter the current Swedish debate on whether or not Sweden should join the EMU, I do not believe Sweden needs further evaluations but should see this as a political decision. A Swedish referendum on the issue would produce a positive outcome according to polls right now.

What about the Dempsey-Fischer scenario? Well, Germany and Russia might very well continue doing business together but involving Russia politically in European affairs might not be such a good idea. I agree with Hillary Clinton's idea that a new security arrangement with Russia would just complicate matters. I guess Russia wants this for being able to shake off any attempts of letting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. Both Viktor Yanukovich and Julia Tymoshenko are steps backwards for Ukraine and time will tell whether or not they will become European or Russian. Politically, I don't think Russia ever will become European.

Guido Westerwelle--German Foreign Minister

German foreign minister calls for Afghan withdrawal plan .:. newkerala.com Online News -151248: "Speaking on ZDF television
, he said, 'In the life of this parliament, we have to get sufficiently far with the concept of self-sustained security that a perspective for withdrawal comes into view.'"

I read an interview by Der Spiegel with Westerwelle where they claimed he was more into economics than foreign policy. Perhaps this is typical for the foreign ministers of today? The national policy is performed with the Chancellor function as with the US and Obama right now. The interview was 2/3 on economy and 1/6 on his homosexuality. The interviewers expected trouble with for example Iran where they dislike homosexuals intensely.

Westerwelle said he was content with the good relationship with France but wanted to work on the Polish. He said that it was important with good relations with neighbours. He did not mention the UK but quoted Churchill at one point "if two people share opinions on all questions, one of them is unnecessary". I guess he intends to have his own opinion relative the Chancellor.

I'm glad Germany has a finite perspective on Afghanistan. As I read the press currently, however, it might turn out to be very difficult to beef up security sufficiently for a withdrawal soon without complications. It seems it is going to be the least bad alternative of two possible: staying or leaving.