When George W Bush visited Israel a while ago, May 2008, he held a speech concerning the sixty year prospect of the region. The occasion was the sixty year celebration of the State of Israel. Most people in Sweden would probably doubt his vision of a prosperous region in peace. The question is if the current events in Tunisia and Egypt are stepping stones in the right direction or if we only can assume we will see changes of faces around the spider web the "secret service" constitutes? Even Syria starts talking about reforms.
Hillary Clinton, the Secretary of State in the US, thinks military restraint and democratic reform would be preferable. It is interesting to note that the military seems to become friends with the revolutionaries in both Tunisia and Egypt. Although, apparently Mubarak showed himself with the army chief on television in a possible attempt to gain some goodwill.
The fact that people are so fed up that they begin to risk their lives for change is a good thing, since it will have effect on the debate of for example the rule of China. Freedom matters. Autocratic means of governance seems to fail, given some time depending on the culture in question. It must also be good for the people in Iraq to see that their suffering through their civil war might have the effect of moderation on the revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt. Heard one Tunisian activist that said they would not do the same mistake as the Iraqis. What is happening is of course very serious, already 100 people have lost their lives in Egypt. It is tempting to assume that people in Tunisia and Egypt have compared their lives with those of friends and relatives in Europe who live a more free life.
There was an estimate that the Muslim Brotherhood would get 80% of the vote in a fair election? Sounds high but this could of course mean trouble for the region since it might become a giant Gaza in the eyes of Israel. Hamas stem from this organization. The problem is then that there might not be any other solution on the present crisis. Despite this the Obama wants "real" democracy. It is a tough call.
Och nu ECFR Annual Council i Paris.
18 timmar sedan