21.5% extremists in the Austrian election

Voters give far right a drubbing in Austria presidential election / The Christian Science Monitor - CSMonitor.com: "Mr. Fischer, formerly with the Social Democrats, garnered nearly 78 percent of the vote. Rosenkranz came in a distant second with 15.5 percent. Rudolf Gehring, leader of the newly formed Christian Party, received nearly 6 percent of the vote."

The other former partner in the Austrio-Hungarian empire Hungary displayed an extremist party Jobbik that caught 17% of the popular vote in a recent election. As in Austria another party, Fidesz, polarized and got a large part of the vote. The Danish People's Party which also alienates foreigners, got 13.8% of the vote in the 2007 year election. In Sweden, Sverigedemokraterna, is consistently getting over 4% in the polls which might mean that they could enter the parliament in this years election.

These numbers are too high in my humble opinion. People try to put the lid on but the problem remains although the CSMonitor claims the extremists parties in Austria are not popular among the young. We have to remember that Barbara Rosenkrantz ran for president on a ticket that would have changed the law against Holocaust denial. When a person claims she represents the freedom of denying the Holocaust, and gets 15.5% of the vote, something is really not alright. This is Europe, not the Islamic Republic.

Change of attitude in former Soviet republics between 1991 and 2009

The change in approval (%) to multiparty system 1991/2009/change for the following countries was:

East Germany 91/85/-6
Czech Rep. 80/80/0
Slovakia 70/71/+1
Poland 66/70/+4
Hungary 74/56/-18
Lithuania 75/55/-20
Russia 61/53/-8
Bulgaria 76/52/-24
Ukraine 72/30/-42

The change in approval (%) to a market economy was:

East Germany 86/82/-4
Czech Rep. 87/79/-8
Slovakia 69/66/-3
Poland 80/71/-9
Hungary 80/46/-34
Lithuania 76/50/-26
Russia 54/50/-4
Bulgaria 73/53/-20
Ukraine 52/36/-16

There is on DN.se today an article about the political situation in Hungary by Ervin Rosenberg where a more gloomy picture than the one I accounted for the other day is painted. In this context it is interesting to note that Hungary is the most disillusioned country with respect to the introduction of a market economy. 80% approved of it in 1991 whereas only 46% approved of it in 2009. A difference of 34%.

74% approved of a change to a multiparty system whereas now only 56% approve of it. A change of 18%. What follows from this might mean, as suggested by Mr Rosenberg is that Fidesz, the party that won some 53% of the vote in the recent elections might try to emulate past times and indeed be, as Mr Rosenberg suggests an authoritative, nationalistic and populistic party.

Most disillusioned of all are however Ukraine.

Poland and Hungary--New type of communism?

Poland: Out of tragedy, normality The Economist: "The suspicion lingers that the country’s old communist elite and their children have morphed into a new nomenklatura. Poles call this idea the Uklad, an all-but-untranslatable word meaning “deal”, “arrangement” or “system”. The price of the communist surrender in 1989 was that the old elite was able to turn its power into wealth, using connections, slush funds and privileges to gain a head start in the country’s shift to capitalism. The Kaczynskis found that idea repellant. They wanted a fresh start and called it a "Fourth Republic"."

Well, Victor Orban, the probable new prime minister of Hungary, started out in the Communist party and in Poland the Uklad is powerful. Perhaps it would be appropriate here to mention the fact the China is ruled by a Communist party.

My fear is that instead of having free people following their individualistic drives building Cameronian "Big Societies" there might be a new type of steering mechanism in play that make things work, for a while. A state in the state on a black economy?

If Europe now is entering a new phase where the ever closer union is replaced by an ever surer disjunction, in the wake of the defining Greece debt crisis, countries like Hungary could be come disillusioned because they have had, according to the Eurobarometer poll, greater confidence in the institutions of the EU rather than in their own. Furthermore, they have not like East Germany been refurbish by a trillion Euro infusion that still have not normalized the situation in the now eastern parts of Germany.

I can hear old communists, out of less loss of pride, say we did not just have the tools required?

The ill-matched pair Fidesz and Jobbik

Ungern går åt höger Utrikes SvD: "Orban startade sin politiska karriär som politisk sekreterare i kommunistpartiets ungdomsförbund. Men redan innan kommunismens fall 1989 blev han en av reformrörelsens förgrunds- gestalter. 1988 tillhörde han grundarna av Fidesz, ett ursprungligen högerliberalt parti som numera är ett högercenterparti med kristdemokratisk orientering."

Hungary has had an election and Fidesz, led by Victor Orban, the new prime minister, won the first round with 53% of the vote. They might reach a two thirds majority of the seats in the second round on April 25. The socialists, MSZP, that has ruled the last 8 years only got 19%, their worst result ever. However, Jobbik a party that has campaigned on an anti-Roma, anti-Semitic and nationalist/expansive agenda got 17%. A sign of the times was that the green party LMP entered parliament with some 7% of 5% needed.

Fidesz, which last ruled between 1998 and 2002, has promised to create a million jobs, in a 10m country, and to reform a complicated tax system as well as curing the black economy. In 2008 the Socialists had to consult the IMF for a €20bn loan and has thus suffered from the following austerity measures which led to the right shift of politics. It is now important that Hungary makes economic progress during the new leadership so that further interest in the extreme right party Jobbik is not fuelled. Worries in Germany, Hungary's main trade partner, and Britain for the development of this party have been voiced. In December 2009 the party set up a London branch for a collaboration with the British BNP and other European parties for securing EU tax support. Studio Ett, the Swedish radio program, however informed that the small extreme right parties of Europe generally are very local and have had problems of actually forming a coalition in the European parliament such as liberals, socialists and conservatives have done.

Despite the Socialist governing the gap between rich and poor has widened during their reign. The tax increases and lowering of pensions that they had done to conform to the IMF directives ironically have mad people step to the right. The Socialists are leaving 11% unemployment, 6% inflation, a GDP drop 2009 of 6.3%. However, Hungary, due to its good record in science and technology, has had the largest Foreign Direct Investment per capita of the region. €60bn has entered. Western multinationals complain that there are problems with recruitment of people with good language skills in English something that might coincide with the fact that the nationalistic Jobbik party is strong among the young and at universities. A localisation trend that might work against a pro-Western stance.

The party Jobbik describes themselves as a principled, conservative and radically patriotic Christian party. Their web site claim that their anti-Roma stance is just against criminal Roma and that their anti-semitism is rather anti-Israel colonisation. However, their meetings feature para-miliatry looking types with similarity to the Hungarian Arrow Cross fascistic World War II movement. They claim that they are not fascistic. They are allied in the European parliament with the British National Party. Jobbik Chairman Gabor Vona said after the election that they would "conduct a very distinct and very spectacular politics". He also said "we are not going to conduct a peaceful and almost invisible politics with these 17%". There has been a discussion of whether Jobbik is going to scare away external financing and estrange Hungary in the EU.