The Global Position?

I see that some people claim that they are global liberals or that Sweden is a global country. Is this an escape from the real people "verklighetens folk"? I must admit I feel a little guilty myself but the question is what such a stratification does to a country. The global postion is a little fuzzy.

As I noted before, the Libya debacle is a case in point. Swedes and Danes share the same base in Italy but do not do the same job and Germany is not doing anything. This is examples of different penetration of the stratification problem.

As a global liberal it is necessary to take a strand for helping the so called rebels in Libya which means you get in trouble supporting Germany's new anti-nuclear line as the path forward for Europe especially when you get 40% of your electricity from nuclear power. Again it is possible to escape as a global liberal with global values but such values are theoretical. They don't exist in reality in a country. I wonder if calling Sweden a global country is not the same as declaring it neutral in all conflicts and keeping one's options open? Saying that we do what the EU does is not true either. We are not even part of the euro-zone.

Then again how homogenous is the global position. Is it the position of global peace? Or the position of global finance? Is it the defunct G20? Jeffrey D. Sachs suggested the world should be divided into self-sustaining regions instead of a G20 mechanism where the regions take care of economical and security questions. Our region would then be the Nordic countries. Some 25m people. Since Norway is not part of the EU and Sweden and Finland not part of NATO we are not even ready to take care of our immediate environment.

With our language education we are part of the Anglo-American culture domain. But apart from security issues, Great Britain and the US are not so close anymore. Germany just took a path that seemed unpalatable for Sweden and thus an ever closer Union does not look potentially good right now, which is what is necessary to save the Euro. You see, neutrality politics becomes tempting again.

Where is the future forming right now? 1523 when Gustaf Vasa got financial help from Lübeck to take back Stokholm from the Danes and then help to organize Sweden saw a development where Holland slowly took over control from Lübeck and thus formed the Western civilization with England during the 16th and 17th centuries. Sweden became on their own then from their benefactor, independence, but did not get part of the real action until later. Are we doing the same mistake today?

Dramatizing Europe

EUobserver / Barroso says German calls for treaty change are 'naive': "Referring to the German trade surplus of €134 billion, the commission president asked: 'Does the German public know that nearly 86 percent of these 134 billion, i.e., 115 billion, comes from trade in the EU?'"

This an interesting piece of information, if true, it seems a little high. It seems like this can be interpreted to mean that Germany's export is generating the deficits and debts of Southern Europe? These countries borrow to their public expenses while they consume German products. Now Germany wants these countries to cut their public expenses to be able to maintain their import of German goods? Barroso is against hard measures for Southern Europe.

Another interesting parameter of the debt crisis is that France's finance minister Christine Lagarde and a prominent German economist that I overheard on the Swedish radio says that there is no euro crisis. Because the lowering of the Euro value relative the US dollar and the Chinese renminbe facilitates German export to these countries. China exports more to EU than the US and is apparently worried about decreased competitiveness because of this.

Perhaps Obama that called Merkel that €750bn night for her to make up her mind also was worried that US competitiveness in Europe would go down. The US has longstanding claims on China for running an overvalued currency. Barroso says that the crisis has been good for Germany and I guess this is an additional reason to those delineated in his interview in Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung today.

Germany is Sweden's largest export nation and we would not like an euro that falls relative the krona either. However, Sweden would probably benefit from a strong and 'free' Germany that checks Russian power in the North East of Europe. If the moral from the above is that this development now rest on bleeding Southern Europe dry and suffering, causing undue societal unrest and tensions, such a wish might not be optimal.

Today's guess on the future of Europe

There has been a lot written on Europe concerning the Euro crisis lately. It is safe to say that the spread on opinions is large which means that uncertanity for the situation is great.

Just because it is fun, I'm going to guess what will happen. The best odds are on a muddle through, high regulation, less fiscal sovereignty EU.

However, I fancy a situation where now Germany tries to see if other countries will follow their lead. When they are not, they will say we tried but failed to lead the EU and then they will leave the Euro zone. Then France also leaves Euroland. Finally, Britain leaves the EU.

This is a combo of what it sounds like in the press on the internet currently.

Europe Day--a day late for obvious reasons

Europhiles lead 'economic governance' calls on Europe Day EurActiv: "'The financial, economic and social crisis presently affecting Europe and the World needs decisive answers and demands urgent action,' warned the European Movement, a pro-EU integration campaign group, at the weekend."

They are not dead yet, apparently, the people hailing Shuman's speech 60 years ago that started all the EU fuss. People are now discussing what actually happened last night. Is it Sarkozy's economic government of his call from the French chairmanship of the EU? Is it an attempt of stabilization but no money down for the "lazy" Greeks? How much is left of the Maastricht Treaty?

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, above at the Telegraph, writes that this weekend's deal demands even more belt-tightening from Club Med countries. Is the current crisis leading to more political integration of the EU or less? Most people seem to think that what we just saw was only temporary relief. Anders Borg, the Swedish Finance Minister, said something on the news that I interpreted as meaning Club Med countries have to tax themselves more if they are going to keep their social models. He did not seem to mean that they had lost their sovereignty. But then again what does more belt-tightening then mean. Evans-Pritchard suggests that a new state is forming in front of our eyes.

The timing of all this is interesting. Because this federalistic push takes place right at the British hung parliament where the Brown government does not want to commit themselves to something expensive Continentalish and Euroish. To their dismay they had to furnish £10bn for the "stabilization". The eurosceptic Britons, on the other hand, have their election right on Europe Day.

Angela Merkel, on her side, visited a military parade on the Red Square celebrating the demise of the Nazis on the same day as she lost an important election in North Rhine-Westphalia, the largest German Land with 18m inhabitants. Nicholas Sarkozy and Silvio Berlusconi actually should have joined her but stayed home instead due to the financial crisis according to New York Times. Merkel, in my mind, reverted a little to her East German descent this week-end.

Taken together, all this probably point in an attempt for business as usual. Carl Bildt speak of taking the long term perspective and it does not seem like the French and the Germans have similar projects which cast some doubts over Europe Day.

A few interesting articles on the Greek tragedy and future of the Euro

The following words are those of Joseph E. Stiglitz in a Project Syndicate article:

"There is a third solution, which Europe may come to realize is the most promising for all: implement the institutional reforms, including the necessary fiscal framework, that should have been made when the euro was launched.
It is not too late for Europe to implement these reforms and thus live up to the ideals, based on solidarity, that underlay the euro’s creation. But if Europe cannot do so, then perhaps it is better to admit failure and move on than to extract a high price in unemployment and human suffering in the name of a flawed economic model."

Joschka Fischer, also on Project Syndicate, discusses American attacks on Germany's and China's positive current accounts and the effects they have on other countries in Europe to which 67% of Germany's export goes. Stiglitz means that one solution for these other countries is that Germany would exit the Euro zone.

Paul Krugman at The New York Times claims that Greece in all probability will default and end up outside the Euro zone.