Ukraine-Russia relations

Ukraine and Russia: A normal day's debate in Kiev The Economist: "And extending the stay of the Russian fleet is backed by some 60% of Ukrainians."

Apparently the brawl at the Ukraine parliament the other day was a hangover from the unfair election, since the majority of Ukrainians don't mind keeping the Russian Sebastopol base. It might be more interesting to ask the Russian taxpayers whether they like the marriage or not? The gas subsidy is derived from removing the export duty from Gazprom.

Marrying Ukraine and Russia might be strategic in terms of securing the food potential of Ukraine once called the food store of the Soviet Union. The attitude from the West now seem to be favorable for the marriage when the economics of not having the burden of Ukraine is important rather than the political domain speak. The Obama administration is in principle letting Russia in on their old turf without fussing for potential gains in the Middle East and Afghanistan. Europe is more on their own now since they did not help out so much yonder?

The Obama doctrine is getting clearer. He is not sentimental at all as evident with Europe and Israel. Friendship is redefined. It is super pragmatic. As I pointed out once before, the slow but sure disappearance of the US from Europe has thrown Europe into a crisis of identity that is now enforced by the economic problems of southern Europe together with a prestige fight with the US about whether or not the Euro zone was a good idea. Europe's attitude towards the US was a little too harsh during the financial crisis perhaps.

What is interesting, however, is how Russia in reality views Europe. In his speech on Victory Day May 9th, 2007, when the Red Army beat Nazi Germany, Vladimir Putin said: "It is all the more important that we remember this today, because these threats are not becoming fewer but are only transforming and changing their appearance. These new threats, just as during the Third Reich, show the same contempt for human life and the same aspiration to establish an exclusive dictate over the world". A New York Times article at this point was a trifle paranoiac and suggested Putin talked about the US, but maybe he was talking about the EU and Germany? Maybe he fears economic rather than military threats?

Putin has also said that the fall of the Soviet Union was the worst catastrophe of the century. In the above speech he said: "Victory Day not only unites the people of Russia but also united our neighbors in the Countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States". In other words 20m people did not die in vain, a sacrifice so large that is possible to question its reasonableness. This is all becoming more of a reality now and personally I am ready to question the wisdom of the earlier alienation from the US on its pursuit for freedom in far away places. As you make your bed, so you must lie on it.

What seems to remain now is to establish a working economic relationship with Russia as Putin tries to repair what he can from his greatest catastrophe.

Ukrainian Democracy?

Smoke bomb and eggs thrown in Ukraine parliament - Telegraph: "Ukrainian nationalists, led by former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former President Viktor Yushchenko, regard the base as a betrayal of Ukraine's national interests. They wanted to remove it when the existing lease runs out in 2017. But parliament ratified the lease extension with 236 votes - 10 more than the minimum required for it to pass."

Carl Bildt pointed out in his blog from Tallinn recently that there would be noise concerning the extension of the lease of the Sebastopol navy base on Crimea. He was right!

When she narrowly lost the presidential election Yulia Tymoshenko charged for election fraud. She later withdrew the suit beause, as she said, it will not be possile to prove...even if she had proof of fraud. I guess eggs and smoke bombs is one way of complaining today that we might see more of in the future?

New Cold War?

Some recent articles that would speak in this direction:

Ukraine and Russia to extend Black Sea fleet lease

Russia's new push for power

Russia is said to have fuelled unrest in Kyrgyzstan

NATO, EU and UN?

”Svensk alliansfrihet ett tomt skal” - sr.se: "– Nato är inte längre en västorganisation. Vi har tio nya medlemmar som tillhör Östeuropa, hela organisationen har glidit geografiskt österut, det är inte en USA-styrd organisation längre, säger professor Ove Bring."

Bring also says, in April 2008, that NATO now is very similar to the EU and the UN. The NATO chief Anders Fogh Rasmussen says that he wants to make a cultural revolution in NATO. He wants the organization to collaborate more with external powers like China, India, Pakistan and Russia. Russia is displeased over this development since it entails plans on further expansion of NATO. Is he trying to create a competitor to the UN Security Council?

However, Madeleine Albright, the 72 years old, born in Czech Republic, former US State Department Secretary, who work in a think tank that will present the result of a reorganization of NATO in November this year, says that the Soviet Union was an enemy of NATO but Russia isn't. This work is performed partly because there is falling support for NATO in 21 member countries of the 27 EU countries. Coordination of the two organizations that seem worlds apart is of essence.

Gunnar Hökmark writes in his blog that the so called Eastern Partnership that Sweden and Poland have launched is the way forward for Europe. It would be interesting to know how this partnership relates to NATO and the UN? Apparently there is some discontent from Germany and France that membership in the partnership could be regarded as a stepping stone to NATO. Personally I am quite weary about all expansion plans. The EU have plenty of problems in the Balkans and for example Greece that make introspection more appropriate.

Helene Cooper and Nicholas Kulish at The New York Times report that Russia is displeased and have probably influenced Kyrgyzstan to prevent the US from using a very important base for the Afghanistan war on their soil. Joe Biden's speech in Munich was highly anticipated because of its potential to reveal the Obama administration's security doctrine. It seems like they will leave the door ajar for discussion on missile defence with Russia. Missile defence is thus a sensitive topic. The seemingly bargaining chip defence-against-missiles-from-Iran is retained.

There has been a lot of discussion about whether or not Russia is European and obviously the country has been influenced historically by Europe. However, being a country adjacent to Europe with missiles directed to it and recent aggressions in Georgia indicates that Russia is alone, all eleven time zones of it. It does not take much imagination to see that the problem of defending this large lowly populated area full of raw materials situated between two giant economical poles makes the Russians show its teeth the day before the new security Davos conference, and say that they ultimately would defend their territory with nuclear weapons.

Ukraine is having their election today and the question is where the country is heading after the fact. Hökmark says that it is moving towards Russia. What I have heard is that Julia Tymoshenko has been an avid visitor in Moscow and is perhaps still the preferred candidate from the Western standpoint. After all she was a front figure in the Orange revolution. However, Viktor Yanukovich got more votes in the first election and was Moscow's original man. The finance crisis in the West have made the old Russian connection more palatable. Many Ukrainians probably ask themselves where do we belong these days and the eastern industrialized Ukraine is decidedly Yanukovich and Russian, including the Crimea. A NATO membership might split the country in half and might not be what the majority of the Ukrainians want?

Further Integration of Europe?

Letter From Europe - U.S. Slights a Disunited Europe - NYTimes.com: "Prime Minister Gordon Brown of Britain is facing an election campaign. Besides, he has little interest in Europe. President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany have supported the United States in seeking stronger sanctions against Iran. Apart from that, neither leader has shown great interest in pursuing the further integration of Europe that is crucial for making the bloc more united in defense and security policy."

Judy Dempsey paints a disheartening picture of the idiom "two is company three is a crowd". Joschka Fischer, a former foreign minister of Germany, says that Guido Westerwelle, the present foreign minister, wants to form an axis of Poland, Germany and France, the so called Weimar triangle. He himself thinks there should be an axis Russia, Poland and Germany instead that can keep Ukraine democratic. Fischer seems to mean that the future of Europe, or an Eastern oriented Europe, where France and Great Britain is left for themselves. In the middle of this Hilary Clinton, Secretary of State, seems to think that there is only one Europe, but perhaps not, since President Obama does not want to show due to the disunity?

Then all of a sudden Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy pleasantly announce an integration document with 80 points on how they see further integration of central Europe possible. It is a ten year plan called the "2020 Agenda". Among other things it is meant that the number of College and Doctor's degrees is supposed to double at Franco-German universities during this time. Common school-books and simpler rules for Franco-German marriages are also planned. France is also going to support a seat for Germany at the UN Security Council.

Personally I believe in further integration of Europe, and to enter the current Swedish debate on whether or not Sweden should join the EMU, I do not believe Sweden needs further evaluations but should see this as a political decision. A Swedish referendum on the issue would produce a positive outcome according to polls right now.

What about the Dempsey-Fischer scenario? Well, Germany and Russia might very well continue doing business together but involving Russia politically in European affairs might not be such a good idea. I agree with Hillary Clinton's idea that a new security arrangement with Russia would just complicate matters. I guess Russia wants this for being able to shake off any attempts of letting Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. Both Viktor Yanukovich and Julia Tymoshenko are steps backwards for Ukraine and time will tell whether or not they will become European or Russian. Politically, I don't think Russia ever will become European.