A young inexperienced president in the US and a stalemate or worse in Afghanistan together with a large population of young unemployed people in the Middle East and North Africa, some liberal most fundamental, creates an impetus for people to revolt against Western supported dictators and fill the streets with blood because there is no future if they don't do something.
The Arab Spring and doing the right thing in Libya, which is one way of looking at the problem, creates a refugee crisis in Europe that fuels anti-foreign sentiment parties to move forward at the same time as the US is withdrawing from their NATO responsibilities in Europe finally realising that there is no interest for paying for security in Europe with a Pacific focus on most issues. Obama is the first Pacific president of the US, born in the middle of the ocean and spending some formative years in Indonesia.
The question is how much the Arab Spring is going to change Europe? Is it going to make the North/South division of Europe more forceful or does it create a new East/West debacle?