20100623

Germany is far ahead of the EU on Russia

"Moreover, the Germans already have thousands of enterprises that have invested in Russia. Finally, in the long run, Germany’s population is declining below the level needed to maintain its economy. It does not want to increase immigration into Germany because of fears of social instability. Russia’s population is also falling, but it still has surplus population relative to its economic needs and will continue to have one for quite a while. German investment in Russia allows Germany to get the labor it needs without resorting to immigration by moving production facilities east to Russia."

George Friedman at Stratfor discusses the relationship between Russia and Germany relative France and Poland which of course also has a great importance for Sweden. The above citation provides one explanation for the driving force of common interest between Russia and Germany.

This might mean that Germany preferentially would invest rather in Russia than in the EU. Especially in the southern parts. The question is if Sweden has enough clout to tackle Russia in the same way?

Today we learned on the news on SVT that foreign trade is improved by immigration in Sweden which would point in an other direction that is more favorable. Immigrant labor in Sweden can work here and in immigrant countries of origin. The information given did not specify if immigrants came from Russia or not. Imagery provided spoke rather of the type of immigration Germany apparently fears would threaten their societal stability.

Doing business in Russia is not easy according to IKEA which will stop expansion in the country and just maintain operations. Leon Aron at the AEI writes that a climate of fear stifles innovation in Russia. This would mean that one would find only beneficial opportunities in simpler endeavors where salaries are not all that low. Seems like the German's fear for foreigners might put them at a disadvantage?

The falling populations in Germany and Russia are interesting though. Great Britain is projected to pass Germany as EU's largest country by 2050 and the US will increase its population as well. Their in house solutions sound more viable.

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