20100624

Kissinger has a non-Karzai solution?

Henry A. Kissinger - America needs an Afghan strategy, not an alibi: "The military effort should be conducted substantially on a provincial basis rather than in pursuit of a Western-style central government. The time scale for a political effort exceeds by a wide margin that available for military operations. We need a regional diplomatic framework for the next stage of Afghan strategy, whatever the military outcome. Artificial deadlines should be abandoned."

By sacking McChrystal Obama alienated himself from the Europeans and especially from Hamid Karzai that had formed a personal relationship with McChrystal. The White House wined and dined Karazai not long ago but this would in all probability not heal the wounds inflicted earlier. Henry Kissinger suggests in an article that Afghanistan should be regionalized which would make Karzai less important. Regions with an economic governance, Eu style? The growth last year was 15% which would say that things might not be so bad after all economically. Only politically.

Kissinger is probably right. There is a need for a new strategy. The old one did not work since the death rates have reached new maxima this June, June not even ended. The question then is if COIN has a greater possibility of working in a regionalized Afghanistan?

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