20100523

Iran can probably take a deep breath?

President Obama gave a talk before the graduates of West Point and "in essence" gave up the notion of preemptive war. It was apparently "a glimpse of the new national security doctrine". That should end all these speculations about the US keeping bombing Iran "on the table". It would be very difficult for the Israelis to go it alone.

Obama does not want unilateralism and it will be interesting to see if the American press would start to recognize that they are not alone in for example Afghanistan. It very often sounds like they are. I should admit that it in the Swedish press sometimes sounds like Sweden is alone in Afghanistan too. For many Swedes it is difficult to be in something military with America.

So, the US would only go to war if attacked. This would in all probability mean that Obama is saying yes to the notion of Iranian nuclear weapons. Most people say that sanctions are useless. His stock in Israel must have gone down further, although according to Caroline Glick at The Jerusalem Post, it cannot go down much further from its single digit position.

Iran was apparently involved in some negotiations recently with peers? It must be seen as a good sign that they engage with other respectable countries like Brazil and Turkey even if the West does not want to agree on this due to tactics? However, as I concluded above it should be less important now although proliferation aspects remain.

According to the article Obama wants to emphasize global institutions and promote democratic values. Promoting democratic values is something Obama has been accused of putting less emphasis on so this return to the Bush doctrine is welcome. It should signal a tougher stance against China and Russia despite the overall importance of trade for the economic recovery.

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