Israel and the US

Well, several lines of acquaintanship are now evolving. The media in Israel has truly been preparing for war against Iran since the Gaza debacle. Part of media is now easing in the possibility that Iran could be tolerated with nuclear weapons. Part is still in atack mode even if there was talk about preparing to war that would lead to peace.

Binyamin Netanyahu, Israels prime minister, still has Iran as priority number one. The two-state solution of everybody else is not feasible and he still does not commit to it. It seems he has most of Israelis for him against Iran. Tzipi Livni in the opposition as well. If I have understood the situation correctly this is a defining moment for Israel.

President Obama speak of a two-state solution and has given Iran half a year to respond to the stretched out hand. A new peace plan is in the offing and will be presented. Which Jews will conform to it? The 5.3m in the US or the 5.3m in Israel proper? Will Netanyahu's government hold up considering it? Netanyahu planted a tree in the Golan Heights and is talking of a non-divided Jerusalem. City of David.

What happens if Netanyahu and the Israelis decide to do it their way? The 1967 conquest when attacked is their's. I think is should be and they have proven that if they give land back it is land-for-war as in Gaza with Hamas. One problem with a two-state solution is that there is no land for a state really. Israel needs the Judea and Samaria for security.

The Palestinians will be helped to an increased economic viability and security. They will govern themselves without an army. The world doesn't accept this type of appartheid situation but what can they do. They will start boycotting Israel. Iran and it proxies will attack.

If instead the Palestinians will form a state with an army close by like the world wants. A free Palestine. Will this satisfy Iran and proxies? Probably not. Iran and its proxies will attack.

In the light of these two scenarios it is easy to understand why Netanyahu has Iran as priority number one. Some people think nuclear weapons will stabilize the region with a balance between Israel and Iran, just like the one between Pakistan and India, others think it will cause a race for nuclear weapons in the Middle East. Netanyahu thinks according to the latter scenario, if I have understood the matter properly.

They want to strike Irans nuclear capabilities. A difficult task for an uninitiated to understand since it apparently will require some 1000 sorties and has to take place over enemy territory and and an American Iraq. Robert Gates, the American Secretary of Defense, says a raid will just delay Iran and move the show further underground.

The solution therefore is more sanctions against Iran according to the latest bulletins. However, Russia and China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization will make these sanctions futile even if Europe will agree on tougher sanctions as well.

So, everybody is buying time or will they actually try to make peace with Iran which would potentially eliminate the problem all together.

I'm on Americas side here. I want peace in the region, and like President Obama, I want the US energy independent of the Middle East in ten years like Obama said during his campaign. This makes Israel into a religious/tourist oriented domain rather than a deputy for controlling investments. If Iraq turns hostile that would become troublesome. Will the EU's, India's and China's dependence on the area for petroleum make it more peaceful?

I does not seem that way. It will make it more hostile to Israel. To prepare for this it would be of essence to make friends with Iran. No one wants a hot Iran in this region. Therefore the world has leaked out from the US. It may be OK with nuclear weapons in Iran.

What is unclear here, however, is why would this appease Iran? Will Iran turn into a more responsible country in the region after being taken seriously as a nuclear power? Europe would probably think so. It is more than enough with the NATO engagement in AfPak. At the time of the Iraq war the EU bought more petroleum from the Middle East than did the US. However, they expected the hydrocarbons to flow uninterrupted without an effort. Germany and France did not help out in the coalition of the willing when Saddam malignified. Germany is one of Iran's larges trade partners right now.

President Obama, has acted much like George W. Bush so far, but what would Bush do in the present time. I think Obama wants to leave the area while Bush would have wanted to stay on. Particulary in Iraq. If America is leaving Iran might think it is alright to expand but they have to perform according to their customers needs and as the EU, India and China takes over they might just stay put.

So, I think it looks good for the US but not so good for Israel. They have a so-so relation with the EU and its relation in the media with India and China is so far undefined. Arab countries and Iran will continue to become more prosperous as they sell their goods and will accumulate weapons. Israel would have to get along with these countries which makes even talk about agressions a potential problem and makes the situation worse.

I have not yet seen in the media an attempt at present to look into Israels future other than hearing about aggressions against Iran. I have not seen any plans for peaceful coexistence in the Middle Easst but many scenarios for destruction, if not aggression. I can't get this equation solved.