The Future?

If there is an Obama USA and a Cheney USA, there is also a more integrated EU and a less integrated EU. The future then holds four possible scenarios in principle. A Cheney USA with a less integrated EU and a more integrated EU and an Obama USA with a less integrated EU and a more integrated EU.

A Cheney USA would probably attack Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear weapons with a less integrated EU the national states would come up with all kinds of responses. The Middle East would become quite disturbed. The trans-Atlantic relationship would deteriorate.

A Cheney USA with a more integrated and strong EU would not be able to attack Iran. Everyone would live with the risk of a nuclear Iran after they have acquired their nuclear weapons. The trans-Atlantic relationship would not deteriorate as much since the EU would have a little more clout.

Obama's USA would not attack Iran whether or not EU was more or less integrated. The trans-Atlantic relationship would be good especially if EU became more integrated and a G3 scenario with China could materialize. There is of course the danger of two is company and three is a crowd. In the long run however, I believe in the trans-Atlantic company.

It is wrong to say that it is only the US that is at a break point. Europe is as well. The Lisbon Treaty debate is not settled yet and the difference in outcome is quite large.

Charlemagne brought up an important topic when he said that Reinfeldt has said the small and medium sized countries in the EU did not like a strong presidential candidate after the Lisbon Treaty had passed. Rather a Commission chairman than a president. I for one would like the president to always be elected from one of the major countries. That would be the only way of getting a little clout out of the EU, as seen now lately during the French president period relative the Czech. The greater nations have a little more stamina. Have the big cities in the area. If EU was a country, you would always get most speed out of Paris, London and Berlin and perhaps tomorrow from Brussels. It would be going against human biology to think otherwise. Increased nationalism would be a disaster. During the 18th century this was obvious. It should be as obvious today.

The problem is that there is so little information coming out from the EU. Free information mostly comes from the Anglo-American newsmedia systems. It is therefore very difficult to follow high-level thinking about the future of Europe. The Financial Times claim that free newsinformation will be gone in one year. All poor people in the world will be cocooned. This would potentially create instabilities. I believe in the Anglo-American way of a constant supply of high level information. Transparency. There has to be an other solution for quality journalism then charging up the internet. There was an interview of a journalist on the technology magazine Wired the other day in Der Spiegel. He claimed that there is no way that people are going to accept paying for information that has been free earlier. He said: we will find a way to solve this. It is just a matter of time. SvD.se had a Web question recently where 85% of the readers would refuse to pay for newsinformation.